2009 NFL Preseason Quarterback Rotations: Week 4

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One of the major factors in betting preseason is knowledge about quarterback rotations.

Most teams will play their veteran quarterbacks for no more than a series or two, because they want to see what the backup can do in pressure situations and they don’t want to risk injury. It can be difficult to judge a backup quarterback when he’s going up against second and third-string defenders, so some coaches will play them early in the first half so they can get the reps.

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Here are the quarterback rotations, key injuries, notes and trends for Week Four.

Thursday, September 3

Detroit at Buffalo:

Detroit: Daunte Culpepper (inj.), Matthew Stafford, Drew Stanton (inj.).
Buffalo: Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gibran Hamdan.

Detroit is:
1) 1-6 UNDER in Week 4.
2) 4-11 UNDER if the total is between 35.5 and 38.
3) 4-12 UNDER last week of preseason.

Buffalo is:
1) 1-9 UNDER in Week 4.
2) Jauron is 6-2 ATS vs. NFC opponents.
3) 13-28 UNDER vs. NFC.

Notes: Det: Culpepper is ? with a toe injury. Stanton is out with a knee injury. Stafford will see a ton of action. Buf: WR T. Owens (toe-8/29) is doubtful.

Philadelphia at New York Jets:

Philadelphia: Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, Kevin Kolb, A.J. Feeley.
NY Jets: Mark Sanchez, Kellen Clemens, Erik Ainge.

Philly is:
1) 1-8 ATS in non-conference games.
2) 10-23 ATS if the line is +3 to -3.
3) 3-16 ATS in Week 4.
4) 1-8 ATS vs. NFC.

Jets are:
1) 10-3 ATS in Week 4.
2) 23-7 ATS last 2 weeks of the preseason.

Notes: Phil: Vick and Kolb are expected to the entire game. Feeley is expected to be traded or cut. Jets: RB S.Greene (ribs) is out. Sanchez will play very little. Clemens and Ainge get most of the reps.

NY Giants at New England:

NY Giants: Eli Manning, David Carr, Andre Woodson, Rhett Bomar (R)
New England: Tom Brady, Andrew Walter, Brian Hoyer (R)

Giants are:
1) 4-11 ATS if the total is between 32.5 and 35.
2) 9-22 ATS last 2 weeks of preseason.

Pats are:
1) 11-3 ATS in their last home game.
2) 13-4 OVER at home last 2 weeks of preseason.

Notes: NYG: Expect starters to play very little. NE: Brady is not likely to play. WR Welker is ?

Washington at Jacksonville:

Washington: Jason Campbell, Todd Collins, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel (R)
Jacksonville: David Garrard, Todd Bouman, Paul Smith

Wash is:
1) 0-5 ATS in Week 4.
2) 2-8 UNDER vs. AFC.
3) 1-10 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points.

Jax is:
1) Del Rio is 15-10-1 ATS in preseason.
2) 8-4 OVER L12 games.
3) 7-1 ATS off a loss by 6pts or less.

Notes: Wash: LB L.Fletcher (foot) is out. DL A. Haynesworth (stomach) is out. RB Clinton Portis (rib) is out. CB Carlos Rogers (calf) is out. Jax:no serious key injuries. Expect a lot of Paul Smith.

Baltimore at Atlanta:

Baltimore: Joe Flacco, Troy Smith, John Beck
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, Chris Redman, D.J. Shockley

Balt is:
1) 0-5 ATS playing with 6 or less days rest.
2) 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game.

Atl is:
1) 11-6-1 OVER as a fave.
2) 0-6 UNDER playing with 6 or less days rest.

Notes: Balt: WR M. Clayton (hamstring) is out. Starters should be limited. Atl: RB J.Norwood (knee) is out.

Indianapolis at Cincinnati:

Indianapolis: Peyton Manning, Jim Sorgi, Curtis Painter (R)
Cincinnati: Carson Palmer (inj.), J.T. O’Sullivan, Jordan Palmer

Indy is:
1) 6-13 ATS L19 preseason games.
2) 23-9 OVER away in August.
3) 11-2 OVER away off an UNDER.

Cincy is:
1) 4-0 ATS in Week 4.
2) 16-8 OVER as a favorite.

Notes: Indy: Jim Sorgi (hamstring) should be back and will get a lot of time. Cincy: QB C. Palmer (ankle) is expected to play, but maybe just one series. K S. Graham (groin) is ?

Pittsburgh at Carolina:

Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, Charlie Batch, Dennis Dixon (inj.), Mike Reilly (R)
Carolina: Jake Delhomme, Josh McCown, Hunter Cantwell

Pittsburgh is:
1) Tomlin is 2-6-1 UNDER.
2) 1-4 ATS in road games.

Car is:
1) 3-8 ATS as faves L11 games.
2) 18-7 OVER if total is 35 or less.

Notes: Pitt: Starters should be extremely limited in this one. WR S. Holmes (back) and RB W. Parker (hammy) are ? K J. Reed (ankle) is ? Backup QB Dennis Dixon (shoulder) is ? Car: RBs D.Williams (knee) and RB J. Stewart (Achilles) are ? LB Jon Beason (knee) is out. LB Thomas Davis (knee) is ?

Cleveland at Chicago:

Cleveland: Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, Brett Ratliff, Richard Bartel
Chicago: Jay Cutler, Caleb Hanie, Brett Basanez.

Cleve is:
1) 0-6 UNDER in Week 4.
2) 7-0 ATS if scored 3pts or less 1st half last game.

Chi is:
1) 4-8 ATS in Week 4.
2) 0-5 UNDER in Week 4.
3) 4-7 ATS at home in preseason.
4) 4-14 ATS at home last two weeks of the preseason.

Notes: Cleve: All about Quinn and Anderson battling it out for starting job. No starter has been announced. Chi: Cutler should be very limited in this game.

Miami at New Orleans:

Miami: Chad Pennington, Chad Henne, Pat White (R)
New Orleans: Drew Brees, Mark Brunell, Joey Harrington.

Mia is:
1) 8-2 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points.
2) 1-7 UNDER in August.
3) 2-8 UNDER L10 preseason games.

NO is:
1) Payton is 2-5 ATS at home.
2) Payton is 2-4 ATS as a fave.
3) 2-7 ATS in Week 4.
4) 3-12 ATS at home off an ATS win.

Notes: Mia: Should see a lot of Chad Henne. NO: R. Bush (calf) and RB P. Thomas (knee) are doubtful. DL Charles Grant (hamstring) is ?

Green Bay at Tennessee:

Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn (inj.), Brian Brohm.
Tennessee: Kerry Collins, Vince Young, Patrick Ramsey (inj.)

GB is:
1) 5-1 Over playing with 6 or less days rest.
2) McCarthy is 10-4 OVER in preseason.
3) 3-10 ATS in Week 4.
4) 4-0 ATS off BBG games with a TO margin of +2 or better.

Titans are:
1) Fisher is 10-5-1 ATS at home since 2000.
2) 0-9 UNDER at home off SU loss.

Notes: WR G. Jennings (head) is out. QB M. Flynn (shoulder) is ?RB B. Jackson (shin) is ? Brian Brohm will be put under the microscope again. Tenn: DL J.Kearse (hammy) and DL J. Jones (foot) are ? QB P. Ramsey (ribs) is ?

Kansas City at St. Louis:

Kansas City: Matt Cassel (inj.), Brodie Croyle, Tyler Thigpen, Ingle Martin
St. Louis: Marc Bulger (inj.), Kyle Boller, Brock Berlin, Keith Null (R)

KC is:
1) 1-10 ATS L11 preseason games.
2) 0-7 ATS off SU loss.

Rams are:
1) 4-14 UNDER at home off non-conf. Game.

Notes: RB K.Smith (knee) is out. QB M.Cassel (is out). Croyle gets start. STL: M.Bulger (finger) is out. WR D.Avery (foot) is ? DL Adam Carriker (ankle) and DL L. Little (knee) are ?

Arizona at Denver:

Arizona: Kurt Warner, Matt Leinart, Brian St. Pierre, Tyler Palko
Denver: Kyle Orton (inj.), Chris Simms (inj.), Tom Brandstater (R)

Ariz is:
1) 7-4 OVER L11.
2) 6-0 ATS in Week 4.
3) 5-1 OVER in Week 4.
4) 11-5 OVER last week of preseason.

Den is:
1) 9-0 ATS in Week 4.
2) 16-5 ATS at home vs. an NFC opponent.
3) 8-0 ATS off a home loss.

Notes: Ariz: WR A. Boldin (hamstring) is ? Den: K.Orton (finger) is out. QB C.Simms (foot) is out. Rookie Tom Brandstater will get the start and play most of the way if not all (they haven’t signed another QB as of press time). RB K.Moreno (knee) is ? RB L.Jordan (leg) is ?

Oakland at Seattle:

Oakland: JaMarcus Russell, Jeff Garcia, Bruce Gradkowski, Charlie Frye
Seattle: Matt Hasselbeck, Seneca Wallace, Mike Teel (R), Jeff Rowe

Oak is:
1) 5-13 UNDER last four+ years.
2) 8-21 UNDER off a home game.

Sea is:
1) 10-1 ATS L11 in preseason.
2) Mora is 10–4-1 ATS in preseason.
3) 10-4 OVER L14 games.

Notes: Oak: CB N.Asomugha (wrist) is ? LB K. Morris (elbow) is out. Sea: no key injuries. Expect Hasselbeck to sit most of the game if not all.

Friday, September 4

Houston at Tampa Bay:

Houston: Matt Schaub (inj.), Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman (inj.), Alex Brink (R)
Tampa Bay: Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown, Josh Freeman (R), Josh Johnson

Hou is:
1) 8-3 OVER in August.
2) Kubiak is 10-5 OVER L15.
3) 0-6 ATS in Week 4.
4) 2-9 ATS off an UNDER.

TB is:
1) 5-1 ATS off non-conference game.
2) 4-0 ATS in Week 4.
3) 7-1 ATS off Thursday game.

Notes: Hou: QB Schaub (ankle) is not likely to play. QB R.Grossman (hamstring) is ? LB B.Cushing is ? TB:Leftwich now the starter. WR A. Bryant (knee) is out. K M. Bryant (hamstring) is ? WR M. Clayton (hamstring) is ? DB W. Allen (shoulder) is ?

Dallas at Minnesota:

Dallas: Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Stephen McGee (inj. R), Rudy Carpenter (R)
Minnesota: Brett Favre (inj.), Sage Rosenfels, Tarvaris Jackson, John David Booty

Dal is:
1) 12-33 ATS if total is between 35.5 and 42.
2) 7-2 OVER in Week 4.
3) 3-10 ATS off a home loss.

Vikes are:
1) 19-5 ATS in Week 4.
2) 8-4 OVER in Week 4.
3) 11-5 ATS last week of preseason.

Notes: WR Roy E. Williams (shldr) is out. RB T. Choice (shldr) is ? Backup QB S. McGee (knee) is doubtful. Minn: B. Favre (rest/ribs) is out for precautionary reasons. Most of starters are out. Expect A. Peterson to miss as well. WR B. Berrian (hamstring) is ?

San Francisco at San Diego:

San Francisco: Shaun Hill, Alex Smith (inj.), Nate Davis (R)
San Diego: Phillip Rivers, Billy Volek, Charlie Whitehurst

San Fran is:
1) 0-7 UNDER away off BB SU wins.

SD is:
1) 34-20 OVER.
2) 12-5 ATS in last home game.
3) 1-5 UNDER playing with 6 or less days rest.

Notes: SF: QB A. Smith (thumb) is ? WR M. Crabtree (holdout) is out. LB A. Brooks (knee) is out until Week 2. SD: TE A. Gates (soreness/rest) is ? RB L.Tomlison (rest) is dbtful.

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