College Football Predictions & Preview – Sun Belt Conference

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This is a continuation of our series on 2009 college football predictions. Today, we continue with a look at the Sun Belt Conference.

College Football Predictions

Sun Belt Conference

1) Troy
2008 Record: (8-5, 6-1)
Coach: Larry Blakeney, 19th year (144-73-1 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Neal Brown (3rd year)
Def. Coordinator: Jeremy Rowell (3rd year)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 5 defense, kicker, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Levi Brown)

Offense: The Bulls return eight starters on offense from a team that averaged 32.8ppg. Senior QB Levi Brown (6-4, 225), the Sun Belt’s Newcomer of the Year, returns after passing for 2,030 yards and 15 TDs with just three picks. He took over following a knee injury to starter Jamie Hampton, who might redshirt this year. Junior RB DeJaun Harris (5-7, 190) returns after rushing for 1,077 yards and provides great speed and quickness. Junior WR Jerrel Jerrigan (5-9, 176), who caught 77 passes for 868 yards and five TDs, is a great open field runner. Up front, Troy lost both starting tackles so they’ll go with juco transfer James Brown (6-5, 350) at left tackle and Nic Riley (6-4, 282) at right tackle.

Defense: The defense returns five starters from a unit that allowed 21.3ppg (34th in the nation) and 327.5 yards per game (34th). Last year, they led the conference in pass efficiency defense, pass defense, interceptions, scoring defense, total defense, sacks and turnovers gained. While they do lose both tackles, they retain senior Brandon Lang (10.5 sacks) and senior DE Cameron Sheffield (5.5 sacks). At tackle, they add junior Eugene Kinlaw (6-2, 294), who was the national juco Defensive Player of the Year (11 sacks). At linebacker, they return star senior Boris Lee (6-0, 2310, who led the team in tackles and senior Bear Woods (108 stops, 2 INTs). In the secondary, they return just one starters and that’s a concern. Senior CB Jorrick Colvin (2 picks) is the lone returning starter.

Outlook: The non-conference schedule features two road games at Bowling Green and Florida to open the season. After that, they host UAB and then move into the conference schedule. Later in the schedule, they take on Arkansas. A road game on Sept. 26 against Arkansas State could determine the SBC title. The Trojans are the class of the Sun Belt and they just continue to re-load. Expect another big season with a potential upset against Arkansas.

2) Arkanas State
2008 Record: (6-6, 4-3)
Coach: Steve Roberts, 8th year, (37-47 at Arkansas State, 86-70-1 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Doug Ruse (8th year)
Def. Coordinator: Kevin Corless (8th year)
Returning Starters: 15 (6 offense, 8 defense, kicker)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Corey Leonard)

Offense: ASU returns all of its major skill position guys from a unit that averaged 27ppg and 398.8 yards per game. The big question will be the offensive line, which returns two starters. They return both guards and senior TE J.T. Jordan (6-1, 274) should help in the running game due to his size. Senior QB Corey Leonard (6-1, 207) returns as the starter after an exceptional junior campaign. He threw for 2,347 yards with 16 TDs and also rushed for over 500 yards and four TDs. At running back, they return senior Reggie Arnold (5-9, 219) who rushed for 1,074 yards and seven TDs last season. They also bring back sophomore Derek Lawson (5-11, 214), who rushed for 695 yards and four scores in 2008. Senior receivers Brandon Thompkins and Jahbari McLennan each caught 32 passes last season and averaged better than 14 per catch.

Defense: The defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed 23.8ppg (53rd in the nation) and 336.5 yards per game (46th). Up front, they return three of four starters including senior Alex Carrington (6-5, 284), who was Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year. Last year, he recorded 19 tackles for losses and a league-best 10.5 sacks. At linebacker, the Red Wolves lost Ben Owens (87 tackles) to graduation. Junior Darious Glover (6-1, 220) is back after making 54 tackles. They feel sophomore LB Michael Adams (6-1, 245) has a bright future. The secondary returns three of four starters including junior safety M.D. Jennings (6-0, 172), who recorded 67 tackles and three pikcs. They also have a pair of senior corners in Paul Stephens and Daylan Walker.

Outlook: The Red Wolves open with a home game against Mississippi Valley State, which is followed by a road game against Nebraska. After a bye, they open their SBC schedule with a home game against Troy, in what could be their game of the year. They also face Iowa and Louisville on the road. ASU also takes on Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee State on the road.

3) Florida Atlantic
2008 Record: (7-6, 4-3)
Coach: Howard Schnellenberger, 9th year (46-48 at Florida Atlantic, 148-125-3 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Darryl Jackson (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Kirk Hoza (1st year)
Returning Starters: 10, (6 offense, 3 defense, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Rusty Smith)

Offense: The Owls returns six starters on offense, including senior QB Rusty Smith (6-5, 212). Smith threw for 3,224 yards and 24 TDs last year though he needs to cut down on the interceptions (14) and improve the completion percentage (53.8). Smith’s favorite target returns in Cortez Gent (6-2, 170), who caught 60 passes for 935 yards and nine TDs. Senior TE Jamari Grant (45 receptions) is also back, but he’s listed second on the depth chart behind senior Jason Harmon (6-3, 215). Harmon was coming off a torn ACL last spring, after catching 63 passes and five TDs in 2007.At running back, they need to replace Charles Pierre, a 1,000-yard rusher last season. Sophomore Alfred Morris (5-11, 222) moves from fullback to tailback. He had just seven carries as a freshman, but ran for 131 yards on 18 carries in the spring. Up front, senior LG David Matlock (6-3, 290) is the only returning starter. The offense will go as far as the line takes them.

Defense: The defense returns three starters from a unit that gave up 28.7ppg (81st in the nation) and 400.4 yards per game (92nd). Senior Josh Savidge (6-2, 285) is the only returning starter from the line and junior Dino Cox (6-3, 240), though undersized, did have one start at tackle last year. The Owls have three new starters at linebacker. Senior Edward Bradwell (6-1, 200) had the most experience last year with 41 tackles and a sack. In the secondary, they return two starters including sophomore Tarvoris Hill. Junior FS Ed Alexander (6-1, 171) led the team with three interceptions last year.

Outlook: The Owls take on Nebraska and South Carolina on the road to start the season. They also take on UAB on the road and Wyoming at home in their non-conference schedule. They have a tough roadie against Troy in late November and will also host Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee. The Owls have some talent, especially at the skill positions but the holes and lack of experience on defense will cost them.

4) Middle Tennessee State
2008 Record: (5-7, 3-4)
Coach: Rick Stockstill, 4th year (17-20 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Tony Franklin (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Manny Diaz (4th year)
Returning Starters: 19 (10 offense, 7 defense, kicker)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The Blue Raiders return 10 starters on offense, but they have one big question. Who will play quarterback? They have to replace Joe Craddock, who threw for 2,677 yards and 15 TDs last year. New offensive coordinator Tony Franklin, who lasted just seven games at Auburn, takes over and tries to implement the spread. Junior Dwight Dasher (5-10, 204) will likely get the job, because he’s the most experienced and is an outstanding runner. However, he has completed just 38.6 percent of his passes in limited action. At running back, they return junior Phillip Turner (6-0, 211), who ran for 714 yards and 15 TDs last season. They are loaded at wide receiver led by senior Eldred King, who grabbed 51 catches for 598 yards last season. They also have five players who have combined for 188 catches and 16 touchdowns from last season. The line struggled last season due to inexperience, but it should be a strength this season with five returning starters. Add sophomore Jake Pardick (6-1, 281), who can push for time at center, and the Blue Raiders have excellent depth up front.

Defense: The defense returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 24.9ppg and 366.3 yards per game. They operate out of a 4-3 scheme, but will blitz from all over the field. They return both ends in Emmanuel Perez (6-1, 228) and senior Chris McCoy (6-4, 252). Junior DT Dwight Smith (6-2, 263) didn’t start, but he did have 7.5 tackles for loss off the bench. The defense is led by senior LB Danny Carmichael (6-0, 246), who made 75.5 tackles, including 11.5 for loss. However, they lost two other starting linebackers and will need somebody to step up. The secondary should be considered a plus, as they return all four starters. Senior corner Alex Suber grabbed two picks last year.

Outlook: Middle Tennessee State takes on Clemson on the road and hosts Memphis to start the season. They upset Maryland last season and now they have to go to College Park in the third game to take on the Terps. They also face Mississippi State right after facing Troy on the road in October. They face Arkansas State at home in their second-to-last game of the season. This is a decent football team that could surprise some people –if they can find a solution at quarterback.

5) Florida International Golden Panthers
2008 Record: (5-7, 3-4)
Coach: Mario Cristobal, 3rd year (6-18 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Bill Legg (2nd year)
Def. Coordinator: Phill Galiano (3rd year)
Returning Starters: 16 (9 offense, 6 defense, kicker)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Paul McCall)

Offense: Florida International returns nine starters from a unit that averaged a pedestrian 24.7ppg and 316.9 yards per game (96th in the nation). They do return senior quarterback Paul McCall (6-1, 198), who threw for 2,332 yards last season with 15 TDs. He’ll have his top five targets back including sophomore T.Y. Hilton, who caught 41 passes, for 1,013 yards and seven TDs. The passing game should be fine; it’s the running game that needs to be rejuvenated. Sophomore RB Darriet Perry (5-9, 195), who rushed for 173 yards as a freshman, replaces Juilan Reams. It also helps that the offensive line returns five starters including junior center Brad Serini (6-3, 300), who has started every game for the past two seasons.

Defense: FIU returns six starters from a unit that allowed 28.3ppg and 369.1 yards per game. They lose five starters, but three of them are up front. The only returning starter is senior end Armond Willis (6-2, 225), who started eight games and had 31 tackles and a sack. They hoop to get a boost from juco end Thatcher Startling (6-4, 251), who should help a unit that registered only 18 sacks last year and couldn’t stop the run (156.2ypg). They also return senior end Reginald Jones (6-2, 264), who played just two games last season before suffering a foot injury. At linebacker, the leader is senior Scott Bryant (5-10, 220), who led the team in tackles with 89 and was named honorable mention All-Sun Belt. In the secondary, the Panthers return two starters including CB Anthony Gaitor (5-10, 178), who earned all-conference honors with five picks, including two for touchdowns.

Outlook: FIU faces Alabama and Rutgers on the road to start the season. They also face Toledo in their home opener and face Florida late in the season. In conference, they host Troy and head to Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State. This should be a more explosive offense this year, but the defense has holes to fill. They face an incredibly tough schedule and while they are making progress, they still have a ways to go to get to Troy’s level.

6) Louisiana-Monroe
2008 Record: (4-8, 3-4)
Coach: Charlie Weatherbie, 7th year (25-46 at ULM, 70-109 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Vance Vice (1st year) and Jonas Weatherbie (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Tony Reffett (1st year)
Returning Starters: 17 (7 offense, 8 defense, kicker, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The offense returns seven starters from a unit that produced just 23.7ppg (79th in the nation) and 337.3 yards per game (82nd in the nation). Head coach Charlie Weatherbie, who shook up his coaching staff, needs to find a quarterback. Junior Troy Revell (6-5, 218) did see some action last season backing up Kensmon Lancaster. Revell loses one weapon in all-conference TE Zeek Zacaharie (46 catches for 510 yards) to graduation. At wide receiver, they return sophomore Anthony McCalll and senior J.J. McCoy. They do return leading rusher Frank Goodin (5-9, 200), who rushed for 783 yards last year with five TDs. The offensive line returns four starters up front, anchored by junior LG Doug Stroud (6-6, 331).

Defense: The defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed 31.2ppg and 444.7 yards per game (109th in the nation). They’ve switched to a 3-3-5 defense under new coordinator Troy Reffett, who came from New Mexico. The defense is designed to blitz from all over the field. Up front, they return all three starters including DE Aaron Morgan (6-4, 224), who had six sacks last season. At linebacker, senior All-Sun Belt performer Cardia Jackson (6-2, 240), who led the team with 127 tackles, adding four sacks. Senior Josh Thomas (108 tackles) and Theo Smith (49) also return. In the secondary, they return senior James Truxillo, who played just two games last year before tearing an ACL. They also return both cornerbacks in Nate Brown and Otis Stamps.

Outlook: The Warhawks faces Texas on the road to start the season and then those Texas Southern at home. Talk about opposite ends of the spectrums. They also take on Arizona State and Kentucky on the road in their non-conference schedule. Taking on Troy on the road doesn’t help. These changes by Weatherbie still may not be enough to turn this team back around.

7) Louisiana-Lafayette
2008 Record: (6-6, 5-2)
Coach: Ricky Bustle, 8th year (32-50 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Ron Hudson (2nd year)
Def. Coordinator: Kevin Fouquier (3rd year)
Returning Starters: 17 (7 offense, 9 defense, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The offense returns seven starters from an offense that averaged 33.1 ppg game and 449.2 yards per game overall. The Ragin’ Cajuns lose three major stars on offense: QB Michael Desormeaux (2008 Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year), RB Tyrone Fenroy (school’s all-time leading rusher) and WR Jason Cherry (7 TDs). Sophomore quarterbacks Brad McGuire (6-3, 215) and Chris Mason (6-2, 200) along with redshirt freshman Blaine Gauthier will battle it out for the starting job. McGuire has the most experience with 233 yards rushing and 143 yards passing. Senior Undrea Sails (5-8, 200) will look to take over at running back. Six backs on the road have just 70 carries among them. The receiving corps, despite losing Cherry, is still talented. They could also use a big year from sophomore TE Ladarius Green (6-5, 220), who had 268 yards receiving last year. The good news is that the offensive line returns intact. Senior LG Brad Bustle (6-4, 295) and senior C Chris Fisher (6-3, 285) are both first-team all-league selections.

Defense: The defense returns nine starters from a unit that allowed 33.7ppg (104th in the nation) and 429.6 yards per game (105th in the nation). The experience is there, but the talent isn’t necessarily abundant. Up front, they need production from sophomore Derreck Dean (5-11, 295) and his linemates. At linebacker, they bring back senior Antwyne Zanders (69 tackles), an honorable mention all-conference pick and Daylon McCoy (6-0, 215), who had 69 tackles and four sacks at safety. He now moves up to linebacker and that leaves a hole at strong safety where sophomore Chris Richard is expected to take over. They do return both corners, though they still have issues against the pass.

Outlook: The Ragin’ Cajuns had a tremendous 2008, but it will be tough to match 2009 with all their losses on offense. They host Southern (1AA) to start the season and then face Kansas State at home. They also face LSU and Nebraska on the road. The Sun Belt seems like cake after those three tough games. They face Troy at the end of the season at home and Arkansas State on the road. The offense is young and the defense needs to improve for them to make a run again in the SBC.

8 ) North Texas
2008 Record: (1-11, 0-7)
Coach: Todd Dodge, 3rd year (3-21 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Todd Ford (3rd year)
Def. Coordinator: Gary DeLoach (2nd year)
Returning Starters: 16 (7 offense, 8 defense, kicker)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The Mean Green returns seven starters from a unit that averaged 20ppg. Not a great mark, but they could have averaged 30ppg and still probably finished 1-11 considering how poor the defense was. This season, Todd Dodge will have all sorts of pressure on him, not just because he finished 3-21 in his first three seasons, but now he is inserting his freshman son Riley (6-0, 182) at quarterback. Dodge replaces Giovanni Vizza, who transferred to Texas A&M. Dodge will miss the services of graduated receiver Casey Fitzgerald (113 catches for 1,119 yards). They do have a strong running game led by Cam Montgomery (6-1, 210), who ran for 928 yards. They have just one returning starter (Sam Robertson) at receiver and will look at three transfers including Jamaal Jackson and Michael Outlaw. The offensive line should be solid with five starters returning including sophomore J.J. Johnson (6-2, 280). They also return junior center/guard Kelvin Drake (6-2, 302), who missed last season with an ankle injury.

Defense: The defense returns eight starters from a unit that ranked last in the nation in points allowed (47.6ppg) and last in yards allowed (482.6 yards per game), so they can only go up from here. The Mean Green decided to go the juco ranks to find some help, especially on the defensive line, where they return just one starter (senior Eddrick Gilmore). At linebacker, senior Tobe Nwigwe (6-1, 251) returns as the leading tackler with 111 and also tallied three picks. They also bring back junior Craig Robertson (6-0, 226), who made 94 tackles. In the secondary, senior Antoine Bush will be challenged at Adryan Adams at one spot. Sophomore safety Darien Williams (5-10, 185) had a strong first campaign with 62 tackles.

Outlook: North Texas takes on Ball State on the road to start the season and then hosts Ohio. They also face Alabama on the road and Army at home near the end of the season. They also face Troy and Arkansas State on the road. Not that they are a threat to the SBC title, but if they don’t beat Western Kentucky at home, this could be a very long year.

9) Western Kentucky
2008 Record: (2-10, 0-0)
Coach: David Elson, 7th year (39-32 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Walter Wells (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Mike Dietzel (1st year)
Returning Starters: 15 (8 offense, 6 defense, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The Hilltoppers are in their first season in a Division I conference and a full-fledged member of the FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision). This will be a major adjustment for Western Kentucky, who did go 2-10 against some pretty good teams including a few Sun Belt squads. Their only wins took place against Eastern Kentucky and Alabama. This year, they have to go into their Sun Belt schedule with a new quarterback. Senior Brandon Smith (6-0, 200) is the likely starter though freshman Marcus Vasquez could push him. They have no experience there and return its top three running backs in senior Tyrell Hayden (388 yds, 3 TDs), senior Marell Booker (285 yds) and sophomore Bobby Rainey (259). Senior Jake Gaebler (588 receiving yds) is back as the team’s top target. Up front, they return four starters including senior guard Cody Hughes (6-1, 300), a three-year starter.

Defense: The defense returns six starters from a unit that allowed 27.2ppg and 375.2 yards per game. They have a new coordinator in Mike Dietzel, who has been on the staff since 2003. Outside linebacker Blake Boyd (6-3, 250) is the top returner with 9.5 tackles for loss and 67 stops. Up front, they return one of the three starers (Jared Clendenin). The secondary is led by sophomore safeties Ryan Beard (3 picks) and Mark Santoro. They also move former quarterback Dexter Taylor to cornerback, where he is likely to get the start.

Outlook: The Hilltoppers open with Tennessee on the road. They also face South Florida and Central Arkansas at home and then face Navy to close out the non-conference schedule. It doesn’t really matter who they face in their first year in the Sun Belt as long as they are competitive. Last year, they faced five Sun Belt teams and lost by an average score of 28-16.

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