College Football Predictions & Preview: Mountain West Preview

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This is a continuation of our series on our exclusive 2009 college football predictions.  Today, we take an early look at the Mountain West Conference.

College Football Predictions

Mountain West

1) TCU
2008 Record: (11-2, 7-1)
Coach: Gary Patterson, 9th year (73-27)
Off. Coordinator: Jarrett Anderson (1st year) and Justin Fuente (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Dick Bumpas (6th year)
Returning Starters: 13, (6 offense, 5 defense, kicker, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Andy Dalton)

Offense: The Horned Frogs return a very strong nucleus from an offense that averaged 33.6ppg and 421.3 yards per game (24th in the nation). Junior QB Andy Dalton (6-3, 215) is under center again, after throwing for 2,242 yards with just five interceptions. They also return top receiver in junior Jimmy Young (6-1, 200), who led the team with 988 yards receiving. Senior running back Ryan Christian was also very effective as a receiver, grabbing 30 receptions for 386 yards. They also return senior running back Joseph Turner, who ran for 577 yards. The offensive line returns three of five starters, including all-conference picks in tackles Marshall Newhouse (6-3, 317) and Marcus Cannon (6-5, 350).

Defense: Last year’s defense was one of the best in the nation, as they allowed just 47.1 yards per game, They Horned Frogs are led by senior DE Jerry Hughes (6-3, 257), who led the nation with 15 sacks and also forced six fumbles. However, he’s the only returning starter on the defensive line and will surely see his share of double teams. At linebacker, senior Daryl Washington (6-3, 228) is back after recording 63 tackles. He’s one of the best athletes on the team. But they lose All-MWC picks Jason Phillips and Robert Henson to the NFL. The secondary is led by All-MWC cornerbacks Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders.

Outlook: TCU won 11 games last season and doesn’t seem to get the national respect. They face Virginia and Clemson on the road along with home games against Texas State and SMU. They take on BYU on the road and Utah at home. The big issue will be replacing six starters on defense, including two of the three safeties.

2) Utah
2008 Record: (13-0, 8-0)
Coach: Kyle Whittingham 5th year (37-14 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Dave Schramm (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Kalani Sitake (1st year)
Returning Starters: 11 (4 offense, 7 defense)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The Utes will have to replace quarterback Brian Johnson, a major loss to an offense that will need some re-tooling. Replacing the MCW Offensive Player of the Year will be difficult, but the Utes hope junior Corbin Louks is up to the task. Louks was used in running situations last year as he averaged 8.1 yards per carry and scored three times. Juco transfer Terrance Cain along with freshman Jordan Wynn could play if Louks can’t handle the passing part of the spread offense. At running back, senior Matt Asiata (5-11, 230) returns as the leading rusher with 707 yards and will team up with junior speed back Eddie Wide. The top three receivers are gone so they’ll turn to backups Jerem Brooks, David Reed and Aiona Key. The offensive line will be the strength of the unit with three starters returning, including senior LT Zane Beadles (6-4, 305).

Defense: The Utes return seven starters on defense but they lose star DE Paul Kruger to the NFL. They allowed just 17.2ppg and 289.1 yards per game last year. Sophomore Derrick Shelby (6-3, 250) and junior Nai Fotu (6-0, 224) will try to replace him. Rover linebacker Stevenson Sylvester (6-2, 224) is an All-American, who had 73 tackles and three sacks in the Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. The concern is the health of LB Nai Fotu (6-0, 235), who was held out of the spring following knee surgery. They have to replace both starting corners, but senior safties Joe Dale and Robert Johnson return. Johnson led the team in picks last year with four.

Outlook: Utah hosts Utah State, then takes on San Jose State, Oregon on the road and Louisville at home. They beefed up their schedule somewhat from last season, though they couldn’t help that a road win against Michigan last season, meant a lot less than it used. Taking on BYU and TCU on the road will be very difficult.

3) BYU
2008 Record: (10-3, 6-2)
Coach: Bronco Mendenhall, 5th year, (38-13)
Off. Coordinator: Robert Anae (5th year)
Def. Coordinator: Jamie Hill (2nd year)
Returning Starters: 11 (4 offense, 7 defense)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Max Hall)

Offense: The Cougars return quarterback Max Hall, who finished in the top 11 in most passing categories. He also threw for 35 touchdown passes to set a league record. Their biggest loss was of wide receive Austin Collie, who set the BYU career receiving record with a year of eligibility left. At running back, junior Harvey Unga (6-0, 239) returns after rushing for 1,000 yards for his second straight season. With Collie gone, Hall would look to All-America candidate (TE) Dennis Pitta, (6-5, 248), who caught 83 passes for 1,083 yards last season. They lose both starting receivers, but return McKay Jackson (5-11, 192), as sophomore returning from a Mormon mission in Japan. In 2006, he caught 28 passes for 574 yards as a freshman. They return just one starter from the offensive line and this is the big factor that separates them from Utah. Fortunately, they return sophomore left tackle Matt Reynolds (6-6, 320), to protect Hall’s blindside.

Defense: The defense returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 21.9ppg and 355.9 yds./game (59th in the nation). The Cougars, who play a 3-4 scheme, return senior DE Jan Jorgensen (6-3, 259), who holds the MWC sack record with 24. Jorgensen had just five sacks last year as he saw double teams in every game. At linebacker, senior Matt Bauman (6-1, 229) is back after leading the team with 108 tackles. They have an athletic group of linebackers and return all three starters up front. The issue is in the secondary, where they return just one starter. The safety position is the biggest concern, which is one reason why they moved corner Scott Johnson to free safety.

Outlook: The Cougars usually put up points on the board, but it will be difficult to match last year’s total of 34.2 with just four starters returning. They open with Oklahoma in Arlington, Texas, and then face Tulane on the road and Florida State as well as Utah State at home. It doesn’t get much tougher than that schedule and their biggest advantage is that they host Utah in the season finale. With Hall at the helm, the Cougars do have a legit shot at the MWC title.

4) Air Force
2008 Record: (8-5, 5-3)
Coach: Troy Calhoun, 3rd year (17-9 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Clay Hendrix (3rd year) and Blane Morgan (3rd year)
Def. Coordinator: Tim DeRuyter (3rd year)
Returning Starters: 13 (6 offense, 7 defense)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Tim Jefferson)

Offense: The Falcons return Tim Jefferson, a sophomore quarterback who took over midway though last season to lead Air Force to two road wins and five straight victories. Jefferson threw for 655 yards and five touchdowns, which isn’t saying much in this conference. But it was good enough to earn MVC Freshman of the Year honors. But his return should keep the team competitive. Sophomore Asher Clark (5-8, 185) is back at running back, after rushing for 588 yards last season. The receivers have to block in this offense, though one would assume that Air Force finishes better than 117th in the nation in pass offense. Air Force returns three of five linemen including four-year starting left guard Nick Charles (6-4, 285)-a second-team All-MWC pick last season.

Defense: The defense returns seven starters from a unit that allowed 22.2ppg and 341.5 yards per game (50th in the nation). Junior MLB Ken Lamendola (6-2, 230) is the star of the defense, who ranked third in the MCW last season with 118 tackles. Up front, they lose Jake Paulson (9 sacks, 14.5 TFLs). Senior DT Ben Garland (6-5, 275) takes over the role, after recording 7.5 TFLs last year. In the secondary, they hope to return junior corner Reggie Rembert, who missed the spring due to a non-football issue. The secondary should be a strength, but they will only be as good as their pass rush.

Outlook: The schedule is pretty pedestrian, as they take on rivals Army at home and Navy on the road, along with Nicholls State at home and Minnesota on the road. Unfortunately, they also have to face BYU and Utah on the road. While they doesn’t look a top-three team, they could certainly make a minor bowl game and this might finally be the year they beat Navy on the road.

5) Colorado State
2008 Record: (7-6, 4-4)
Coach: Steve Fairchild, 2nd year (7-6 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Greg Peterson (2nd year)
Def. Coordinator: Larry Kerr (2nd year)
Returning Starters: 12 (7 offense, 5 defense)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The Rams took a huge step forward last year under Steve Fairchild, moving from 3-9 to 7-6 in his first season at the helm. The offense returns seven starters, but will feature a new quarterback. Senior Grant Stucker appears to be the successor to Billy Farris, who like Stucker, was a first-time starter last season. However, juco transfer Jon Eastman, freshman Nico Ranieri and Klay Kubiak, son of Houston Texas head coach Gary Kubiak, could all be in the mix. They also have an issue at running back as junior John Mosure appears to be the best of a committee of backs. At least they are deep at receiver where senior Rashaun Greer (6-1, 203), who led the team with 1,114 yards receiving and was a second-team All-MWC selection last year, is back to anchor a strong receiving unit. Sophomore T.J. Borcky (6-4, 197) moves from quarterback to wide receiver, but will also be used in the Wildcat formation. Up front, they return four of five starters on the line.

Defense: This unit allowed a whopping 30.2 ppg (89th in the nation) last season and 410.1 yards (96th in the nation). The Rams run a 4-3 defense, but they rely heavily on the linebackers, especially sophomore Mychal Sisson (5-11, 201), who recorded 105 tackles last season. This year, he’ll move to the outside after two-year starter Ricky Brewer was suspended for the 2009 season. Up front, they have to replace all four starters, so they are rebuilding. The secondary had issues last season, mainly due to injuries. All four starters return, including senior FS Klint Kubiak (6-0, 202), Gary’s older son, who is the leader along with sophomore Eijah-Blu Smith (5-11, 181), who moves over from corneback.

Outlook: CSU takes on their rival Colorado on the road to open, and then faces Weber State and Nevada at home. They face BYU and TCU on the road along with Utah at home. Unless they can find a quarterback, this will be a tough season though games against Idaho, Weber State, Nevada, Air Force, San Diego State and Wyoming at home, are certainly winnable and could be enough to put them over the top.

6) UNLV
2008 Record: (5-7, 2-6)
Coach: Mike Samford, 5th year (11-36)
Off. Coordinator: Todd Berry (3rd year)
Def. Coordinator: Dennis Therrell (3rd year)
Returning Starters: 15 (6 offense, 8 defense, kicker)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Omar Clayton)

Offense: The Rebels won five games last season and while that may not sound like much, it was a building block for coach Mike Samford, who won two games his first two seasons. He also returns junior quarterback Omar Clayton (6-1, 200), who threw for 1,894 yards last season and is a perfect match for the spread offense. They also return senior WR Ryan Wolfe (6-2, 210), who led the team with 88 receptions for 1,040 receiving yards. At running back, they need to replace Frank Summers. They don’t have a standout at this point, which will leave the door open for freshman phenom Bradley Randle. The offensive line returns three starters including junior LT Matt Murphy (6-4, 300).

Defense: The Rebels return eight starters on defense from a unit that allowed 423.2 yards per game (103rd in the nation) and 32.6ppg. They return three of the four starters up front, so that’s a plus. At linebacker, they return senior Jason Beauchamp (6-3, 235), who led the conference in tackles with 127. The secondary is an issue, though Sanford completely overhauled the unit by adding eight new defensive backs including juco transfer Kenny Brown. There is very little experience other than junior CB Quinton Porter, who is recovering from shoulder surgery. Up front, they are led by junior DT Malo Taumua (6-1, 270), a stout run-stopper.

Outlook: Sanford is beginning to turn this thing around and a soft schedule doesn’t hurt. They open with Sacramento State at home, then face Oregon State and Hawaii at home. They also face rival Nevada on the road, along with TCU on the road and BYU and Utah, at home. This is a team that appears to be a year or two away from competing for a title. They could sneak in to get a minor bowl based on their soft schedule.

7) New Mexico
2008 Record: (4-8, 2-6)
Coach: Mike Locksley, 1st year (0-0 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Darrell Dickey (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Doug Mallory (1st year)
Returning Starters: 11 (6 offense, 3 defense, kicker, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Brad Gruner, Donovan Porterie)

Offense: Mike Locksley takes over a program that was basically going nowhere under Rocky Long. The former Ron Zook assistant at Florida and Illinois returns two potential starting quarterbacks in senior Donovan Porterie (6-3, 206) and sophomore Brad Gruner (6-2, 217). Gruner threw for 1,007 yards last season in eight starters, but Porterie, who missed the 2008 season with an ACL injury, is the odds-on favorite to start. That’s because he threw for 3,006 yards in 2007 and should be perfect to run the no-huddle, spread- option system if he’s healthy. Senior James Wright (5-11, 235) is a big back who ran for 348 yards last season and could handle the rushing attack, if he’s named starter. At receiver, all three top starters return, though nobody put up big numbers to the lack of effectiveness at quarterback. The offensive line is led by twoyear starting center Erik Cook (6-6, 312) and returns three starters.

Defense: The defense will be the biggest challenge for a former college safety (Towson), who has coached the offensive side of the ball most of his career. They return just three starters from a unit that allowed a respectable 22.8ppg (46th in the nation) and 335.8 yards per game (45th in the nation). They’ll have a new look in a 4-3 scheme replacing the old Lobo signature 3-3-5 defense. (Long has actually taken that defense to San Diego State, where’s he’s the defensive coordinator). They’ll blitz and attack more often, hoping to improve upon the 21 sacks they had last year. Senior Clint McPeek (6-1, 227) moves from the old “Lobo” position (linebacker-safety hybrid) to linebacker, after making 103 tackles and breaking up nine passes. The secondary has to replace both corners, but returns senior safeties Ian Clark and Frankie Soloman.

Outlook: The Lobos will be rebuilding this season, playing for a new coaching staff with a new system. They could have used an easier schedule, but instead, they have to face Texas A&M on the road to start the season. They also host Tulsa, New Mexico State and face Texas Tech on the road. Porterie should make this team very competitive, but give Locksley another year or two to get his recruits in and they will be a bowl team.

8 ) San Diego State
2008 Record: (2-10, 1-7)
Coach: Brady Hoke, 1st year (34-38 overall)
Off. Coordinator: Al Borges (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Rocky Long (1st year)
Returning Starters: 18 (9 offense, 7 defense, punter, kicker)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: Yes (Ryan Lindley)

Offense: Brady Hoke takes over a program that finished 2-10 last year and hasn’t won a league title since 1986 (WAC). The cupboard is not bare for Hoke as the Aztecs return sophomore QB Ryan Lindley (6-3, 205), who threw for 2,653 yards and 16 TDs as a freshman. They also return senior WR DeMarco Sampson (6-2, 210), who was hampered by injuries in his career, but was a standout in the spring, catching six passes for 181 yards. The leading returning receiver, Vincent Brown (631 yards), also returns along with Jon Toledo. The running game has got to be overhauled. Senior Atiyyah Henderson and junior Brandon Sullivan combined for less than 700 yards last season. The offensive line returns three starters from a line that allowed 21 sacks last year.

Defense: The defense returns seven starters from a unit that allowed a whopping 37.2ppg (113th in the nation) and 460.8 yards per game (113th). The only way to go is up and bringing in former New Mexico head coach Rocky Long to coach the defense was a strong move (3-3-5 scheme). Senior LB Luke Laolagi (6-1, 230) leads the defense with 99 tackles and three forced fumbles in 2008. They have to get some pressure on the quarter as they recorded just 13 sacks last year, led by 3.5 from returning end B.J. Williams (6-3, 250). The secondary returns just one starter in CB Aaron Moore, and will have to employ three new safeties including the LOBO position.

Outlook: The Aztecs open at UCLA, but it gets easier after facing Southern Utah at home and Idaho on the road. They also have to face BYU and TCU at home, along with Utah on the road. It won’t matter as there are not many winnable games on the schedule unless they completely turn the defense around in one season, which is not realistic.

9) Wyoming
2008 Record: (4-8, 1-7)
Coach: Dave Christensen, 1st year (0-0)
Off. Coordinator: Marcus Arroyo (1st year)
Def. Coordinator: Bill Young (1st year)
Returning Starters: 17 (7 offense, 8 defense, kicker, punter)
Ret. Starting Quarterback: No

Offense: The Cowboys have completely fallen off the map in MVC and hope to return under new coach Dave Christensen. The former offensive coordinator at Missouri needs to find a quarterback-and an offense. They averaged just 12.7ppg last season (119th, last in the nation) and 296 yards per game. It appears that juniors Karsten Sween (6-2, 229) and Dax Crum (6-4, 206) are the top candidates coming out of the spring. Crum is a juco transfer and originally an Arizona State signed, but struggled last season, throwing for 429 yards and was suspended for the spring game. They also brought in juco transfer Robert Benjamin and freshman Austyn Carta-Samuels. At running back, they lost Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon, who combined for nearly 2,000 yards. Junior Darius Terry (5-11, 209), who had a big spring, is the likely candidate. They return all three receivers, who will get a lot more action in the spread offense. Up front, they return three starters including both tackles.

Defense: The defense returns eight starters from a unit that allowed 27.8ppg (73rd in the nation) and 329.7 yards per game (38th in the nation). The unit has some talent, led by second-team All-MWC tackle John Fletcher (6-6, 272) and senior DE Mitch Unrein (6-4, 270). In the 3-4 scheme, they return two of the four starters, including sophomore LB Gabe Knapton (6-3, 238), who led the team in tackles with 92. In the secondary, brothers Marcell and Tashaun Gibpson will man both cornerback spots.

Outlook: The Cowboys face Weber State at home, but then it gets rough after facing Texas at home and Colorado on the road. A road game against Florida Atlanta is winnable, but after that, they also face TCU and BYU at home, along with Utah on the road. This will be a learning curve for the Cowboys, who have to find the right players for the new system.

• 2009 College Football Predictions: TCU Horned Frogs
• 2009 College Football Predictions: UNLV Rebels
• 2009 College Football Predictions: San Diego State Aztecs
• 2009 College Football Predictions: Wyoming Cowboys
• 2009 College Football Predictions: Air Force Falcons