NBA Conference Finals: Exclusive Preview

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Western Conference Final Preview

1) LA Lakers (65-17) vs. 3) Denver Nuggets (54-28)

The Los Angeles Lakers needed seven games to defeat the short-handed Houston Rockets, who were playing without Yao Ming AND Tracy McGrady. The Lakers looked about as motivated as a team playing its first exhibition game, especially on the road.

The Lakers are the number one seed here, but they haven’t proven they are the best team in the West. During the regular season, the Lakers took three of four from the Nuggets, with the three wins coming by an average of 11.6 points per game. The Nuggets were just 21-20 away from Pepsi Center during the regular season, which is six games worse on the road than any of the other remaining championship hopefuls. That bodes well for the Lakers, who own the homecourt advantage. Star forward Carmelo Anthony averaged just 14.5 points and shot just 32.8 percent against the Lakers (23.3ppg and 45% against everybody else). However, the Lakers also swept the Rockets (4-0) during the regular season so what happens during the regular season doesn’t always translate to the regular season.

The Lakers are led by Bryant, who has averaged 27.4 ppg, 5 rpg and 4.5 apg in 39.1mpg (he played 36.1mpg in the regular season). He shoots 46% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc, while making 86% from the line. The Nuggets didn’t really have an answer for Bryant during the regular season, when he averaged 31 points per game. J.R. Smith, at 6-6, 220, will get the first chance to defend Bryant. He averages 15.2ppg, while shooting 45% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. He’s a talented offensive player, but their best perimeter defender is probably Dahntay Jones. Jones comes off the bench and at 6-6, 210 has the length to bother Bryant -somewhat.

But the real X-factor for Denver and the whole series is Chris Andersen (6-10, 228). The “Birdman”, who has been to Hell and back in terms of drugs and playing everywhere but the NBA, can come in and disrupt Bryant and others by helping out defensively or guarding them one-on-one. He averages 6.9ppg and 6.1rpg with 1.9bpg in the postseason. He’s been a big lift to a defense that allowed 100.9ppg during the regular season and just 95.5ppg in the postseason.

Denver is still an offensive juggernaut-they just play both ends and that’s due to the leadership of Chauncey Billups. The veteran point guard and “big shot” maker, is second on the team in scoring at 22.1ppg during the playoffs (6.4apg). Compare that with his 17.9ppg average during the regular season and you know why the Nuggets acquired him for Allen Iverson. This was the NBA’s best trade by far and gave the Nuggets a chance to compete instead of just show up for the playoffs.

Billups and Smith can compare to Bryant and Derek Fisher due to the Lakers’ main problem this season-point guard. Fisher was abused by the younger, quicker Aaron Brooks during the Houston series. Fisher averaged 9.9ppg during the regular season, up from 7.2ppg during the postseason. Don’t count Fisher out yet as Billups is more of a physical-type of guard who doesn’t rely on quickness as much as Brooks. Fisher has averaged 26.3mpg, but that playing time could diminish if Jordan Farmar can find his game. The athletic guard from USC has had an injury-prone season but played well defensively in Game 7, helping hold Brooks to 13 points on 4-of-13 shooting in 20 minutes of action.

Up front, the Nuggets have to get Anthony (6-8, 230) established, which shouldn’t be too difficult. Anthony leads the team in scoring with 27ppg in 38mpg during the postseason and is second in rebounds at 6.4 and in assists at 4.3 per game (48% FG, 45% 3pt). That’s one of the biggest improvements Anthony has made to his game-he’s sharing the basketball.

For the Lakers, they have numerous options on how they can defend Anthony. They can continue to start Trevor Ariza (6-8, 210), a very athletic player, who doesn’t have the bulk of Anthony or go with the bigger Lamar Odom (6-10, 230). Ariza averages 10.9ppg during the postseason, two points higher than his regular season average. That’s because Odom (back) has been hampered by injuries. but they will need Odom’s contributions in this one. He averages 12.3ppg and 9.8rpg during the playoffs, with 1.5 blocks. He handles the ball like a guard, and while a streaky shooter, is making 57% from the field and 50% from beyond the arc in the playoffs.

In the post, the Lakers have several options, but if they go very big, that means Andrew Bynum (7-0, 285) will have to compete against Nene Hilario (6-11, 250). Bynum has been up-and-down since returning from a knee injury. He’s averaged just 5.6ppg and 3.8rpg in just 15.5mpg. Meanwhile, Hilario is averaging 12.5ppg and 7.3rpg and provides some solid defense. Hilario is not a big-time scorer so the Lakers could afford to go small, which means Pau Gasol (7-0, 250) would start at center. Gasol is certainly not small even for a center, but he’s better suited for power forward because he does not love the contact. Gasol is the key for the entire series for the Lakers because Denver does not have anybody that can match up for him save for Andersen and Gasol has at least two inches and 20 pounds on him. Gasol averages 18.5ppg and leads the team in rebounds with 10.8rpg and blocks (1.8) in the postseason.

If Gasol plays power forward, Kenyon Martin (6-9, 240) will have his hands full. If Martin can keep his focus and not worry about Mark Cuban, he’ll have to stay in front of Gasol. Martin is no slouch by any means, averaging just 9.9ppg and 5.1rpg in 33mpg during the postseason. That’s a bit down from his regular season averages of 11.7ppg and 6rpg (1.1bpg). He shoots 53% from the field and 64% from the line.

The bench is closer than most people think. The Lakers have one of the deepest benches in the game, but with Jones and Andersen coming off it for Denver, the Nuggets do have some quality player. Add 6-8 Linas Kleiza (6.4ppg postseason, 9.9ppg regular season), who has been underused but is a talented scorer. Anthony Carter is a veteran who can spell Billups for about 10-15 minutes per game.

The Lakers can go to Shannon Brown, who averages 6.5ppg in the playoffs, if Farmar is not playing well at the point. Behind Bryant is streaky wing guard Sasha Vujacic, who averages just 3.9ppg and is shooting just 28% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc during the postseason.

Luke Walton (6-8, 235) is limited as an offensive player (4ppg), but adds solid rebounding and hustle off the bench at either forward position.

This should be a tight series and could come down to homecourt advantage.

Eastern Conference Final Preview

1) Cleveland Cavaliers (66-16) vs. 3) Orlando Magic (59-23)

Orlando needed seven games to get by Boston and had to defeat them on the road. They had their backs against the wall and went up against one of the great trends in the history of the NBA Playoffs. Boston was an astounding 32-0 after taking a 3-2 lead in a series. That was before 6-10 Hedo Turkoglu took over and scored 25 points, dished out 12 assists and grabbed five rebounds. The jump shooter from Turkey has taken on a point forward role since starting point guard Rafer Alston is more of a shoot-first point guard and Jameer Nelson is out for the season with a shoulder injury.

Orlando has another uphill task against Cleveland, who has been the most dominant team in the playoffs by a longshot. The #1 seeded Cavs routed Detroit in the opening round with the lowest margin being 11 points. They also had no problem with Atlanta as they swept them as well, winning by an average of 18 points in each game.

This series should be much closer than people think. Why? Because Orlando matches up better than a Boston or any other team in the Eastern Conference. They showed that during the regular season when the Magic won two of three games, as both wins were double digits. Their loss in Cleveland, the toughest play to play in the league, was by just four points (97-93).

So how do the Magic keep up with the Cavs? First of all, they need to give help to Dwight Howard on the board. Howard is averaging 19.6ppg and 16.6rpg, but the second-highest rebounding total is Rashard Lewis, a think 6-10 power forward who leads the team in postseason with 19.8ppg and averages 6.2rpg. Here’s the problem. Cleveland is very deep up front and can use 7-3 Zydrunas Ilgauskas and 6-10 Anderson Varejao to lean on him all night. They can also bring in 6-9 Ben Wallace and 6-10 Joe Smith, who can defend and rebound.

That’s why the Magic will have to shoot the ball well to take the pressure off of Howard. Lewis is a difficult cover for a lot of power forward, because he brings them away from the basket. He’s shooting 45% from the field and 34% from beyond the arc in the playoffs. Turkoglu has been inconsistent with his shooting but at 6-10, he’s a very tough cover in the backcourt. But Cleveland has a small forward who’s pretty good in his own regard. His named is LeBron James and is the MVP of the league after averaging 28.4ppg, 7.2apg and 7.6rpg this season. In the postseason, he’s pumped it up a notch by averaging 32.9ppg, 9.8rpg and 6.8apg, while shooting 53% from the field and 36% from beyond the arc. Against Boston, Turkoglu could shoot over 6-7 Paul Pierce or 6-5 Ray Allen. James is 6-8 (some say 6-9) and 260 pounds. Advantage Cleveland.

Orlando’s frontcourt is more productive offensively than Cleveland’s. The Achilles’ heel for Orlando is their backcourt, which includes Alston and 6-4 J.J. Redick as the starters. Ouch. Alston is a serviceable starter, averaging 12.8ppg and 4.7apg in the postseason, while shooting 39% from the field and just 33.3% from beyond the arc. Redick, who averaged just 17.4mpg and 6ppg in 64 games played during the regular season, is averaging 6.1ppg and shooting 39% from beyond the arc (34% FG) in the postseason. He only averages 22.9mpg, so he’s often not even on the floor late in games because he’s a defensive liability. He’ll come out for 6-5 Courtney Lee, who averaged 8.4ppg in the regular season and 9.4ppg during the postseason. He suffered a fractured sinus in Game 5 of the opening series against Philadelphia and has since, worn a facemask as protection. He’s shooting 33.3% from beyond the arc and 46% from the field in the playoffs, but his scoring is a luxury. He’s there for his defense.

Cleveland’s backcourt, if you don’t count LeBron, is steady, but underrated. The point guard is Mo Williams, the team’s top off-season acquisition. Even if Williams is not a true point guard (he averages just 4.1 apg), he takes the pressure of LeBron as another ball handler and shooter. That’s what Williams does the best. He can really fill it up and averaged 17.8ppg in the regular season. However, in the postseason, Williams averages just 14.8ppg, while shooting 44% from the field (47% FG regular season) and 37% from beyond the arc (44% regular season). Cleveland hasn’t needed Williams to be on the top of his game in the first two series. They may need him now.

Delonte West is the “other” guard, who can play the point or shooting guard. He averages 13.3ppg and 4.4apg, after averaging 11.7ppg in the regular season. He’s shooting 48% from the field and 36% from beyond the arc.

As for the bench, it’s pretty much all Cleveland. Other than Lee, Orlando has just one other player they can count on off the bench and that’s wing Mickael Pietrus. He’s having a nice postseason, averaging 8.9ppg, while shooting 47% from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. Marcin Gortat, a 6-11, 240-pounder from Poland, has given them some energy off the bench. He replaces Howard, who averages 38.2 mpg, so he gives the team 10 minutes of decent defense and rebounding. Cleveland can go to Daniel Gibson, when they need shooting in the backcourt. He averages 7.8ppg and shoots 38% from beyond the arc. When they need perimeter shooting, they go to veteran Wally Szczerbiak, who averages 7ppg and shoots 41% from beyond the arc in the postseason. UP front, Joe Smith averages 6.5ppg and 4.8rpg in the postseason. Sasha Pavlovic, a talented wing, averages 4.6ppg and shoots 42% from the field and 41% from beyond the arc, can be a positive or detriment, depending on his mood. Finally, there’s Wallace, who can’t shoot, but will give you 6.5 rebounds per game and 1.3 blocks in 23.5 mpg.

As a team, Orlando shoots 73% from the line and 35% from the three-point line during the postseason. Cleveland is shooting 74% from the line and 35% from beyond the arc. Howard is not quite Shaq-like, but can be a detriment with his foul shooting (61%). For Cleveland, the only regular who struggles at the line is Varejao (62%). You won’t see Sasha Pavlovic (46%) or Wallace (42%) on the court during crunch time. Cleveland in five.

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