NBA Draft Preview: What It Means to Your Bottom Line (4 of 6)
Patrick Mills
This is part 4 of a 6-part series delving into individual team needs as we near the 2009 NBA Draft, which takes place Thursday, June 25th at 7pm.
Each commentary in this 6-article series will focus on one specific division’s group of teams and what areas they need to address with their draft picks this year by looking at their team strengths and team weaknesses. We also take into account possible free agent acquisitions and departures in determining where exactly a team needs the most help.
What sets this preview apart from any other is that we analyze what each team’s potential draft strategy would mean to sports bettors everywhere preparing for the 2009-2010 NBA season.
We begin the Western Conference now with the Northwest Division. The number(s) in parentheses represent the picks that particular team will have in this year’s draft.
Follow the entire 6-part series here…2009 NBA Draft Preview and stick with ATS for all the latest NBA lines.
Denver Nuggets (#34 Overall)
Team Strengths:
- As one of the best offensive teams in the league this past season, the Denver Nuggets were able to make it to the Western Conference Finals before being upended by the eventual Champion Los Angeles Lakers. Chauncey Billups’ addition near the beginning of the season only enhanced the Nuggets’ already impressive repertoire of scorers. The Nuggets finished the season 5th in the NBA in FG% and 6th in total assists.
- Defensively, Denver is just as solid as they are offensively. They really have an overpowering trio of shot blockers in the persons of Chris Anderson, Kenyon Martin, and Nene.
Team Weaknesses:
- The Nuggets biggest weakness heading into the Draft this year is that they only will have one pick, and it won’t come until the second round. Despite their success this past season, they still need a PG to take over once Chauncey Billups is no longer around to run the point. They also must make an attempt to replace Kenyon Martin sooner rather than later. He has an early termination option on his contract that comes up after next season, and his injuries as well as his attitude are a detriment to this team.
- Even though the Nuggets are a solid defensive team all the way around, their rebounding could still stand to be improved upon. If the Nuggets are going to win the NBA Title that they so obviously covet, Nene, Martin, and even Carmelo Anthony need to hit the boards harder.
Our pick(s):
- #34: Patrick Mills – PG, St. Mary’s. Mills has been projected anywhere from a late lottery selection to mid-2nd round. If he is still available at #34, the Nuggets should put serious consideration into drafting Mills. Mills is a true point guard in every sense of the term, and he fills the Nuggets’ need to find Billups’ successor. Mills actually reminds you of a smaller Chauncey Billups in that he is a good shooter and is very adept at creating his own shot. His high level of athleticism would also fit in well with Anthony, J.R. Smith, and Martin.
Final Analysis:
- Now that oddsmakers know that George Karl’s Nuggets are for real, don’t expect the “cushy” point spreads that accompanied a good many of Denver’s games this year. Barring any trades, their entire starting five will be returning, but it is important that the Nuggets also put a great deal of effort into re-signing Chris Anderson, who proved that he is a valuable asset any time he is on the court. While the consistency in the lineup is good for bettors everywhere, keep in mind that Denver had a tendency this past season to not “show up” for a lot of games.
Portland Trail Blazers (#24, #33, #38, #55, & #56 Overall)
Team Strengths:
- Unlike the Nuggets, this year’s Draft is one of this team’s biggest strengths. The fact that the Blazers have five draft picks allows for a great deal of trading-up possibilities. Portland has voiced their overall fascination with Stephen Curry for the past month or so. It would be no surprise, then, if the Blazers were to trade up in order to get Curry.
- Rudy Fernandez’s play during his rookie season was absolutely outstanding. His size at the PG position should allow him to take over for Steve Blake as the starter this season. His presence in the Portland backcourt also allows the Blazers to shop Sergio Rodriguez before he loses any of his potential trade value.
Team Weaknesses:
- Greg Oden has yet to prove that he was worthy of being the #1 overall pick two short years ago. Oden has not been 100% healthy since his senior year of high school, which has to have the Blazers front office very nervous at this point. He must start producing now, or the Blazers are going to have to start looking at more viable options in the middle.
- Sergio Rodriguez’s value to the Trailblazers is not being utilized effectively at all. He obviously deserves more than the 15 minutes per game that he got this past season, so Portland needs to figure out whether they want him to be the starting SG or whether they want to trade him before he becomes a free agent next season. The aspect that I like most about Rodriguez is the fact that his presence in the lineup would allow Brandon Roy to move to the “point forward” position where he would be better able to isolate and create his own offense.
Our Pick(s):
- #24: I really believe that the Blazers are going to utilize the five draft picks that they have in their favor. They have a lot of budding young talent on the team, and one more outstanding Draft by the Blazers would only solidify GM Kevin Pritchard’s position as one of the best Draft gurus in the entire league. Sticking with the idea that we are looking at the Blazers best interests, they should package this pick along with #55, #56, and Sergio Rodriguez in order to trade with the Wizards at #5. This would, hypothetically, allow them to take Curry if you believe that Griffin goes #1, Thabeet goes #2, while Rubio and Harden go #3 & #4.
- #33: Toney Douglas – PG/SG, Florida St. Normally, it is pretty easy to project where a prospect is going to play at the next level. With Douglas, however, it truly is a “wait-and-see” situation. Douglas can play either position very well, though it would behoove Douglas to master his PG skills first. Douglas has excellent range on his shot, and he would provide exceptional depth off the bench for the Blazers at either the PG or SG position.
- #38: Derrick Brown – PF, Xavier. Right now, it is very hard to tell exactly where Brown stands with NBA teams. Some teams are thinking about using their late first-rounder on him, while others are taking their chances that he falls to the second round. Brown would provide the Blazers with a great insurance policy for the possibility that Channing Frye leaves in free agency this summer, and Lamarcus Aldridge leaves in free agency next summer. While Brown is undersized to play PF at the NBA level, his overall game shows a lot of potential, which is why there is so much discussion about his overall value in this year’s Draft.
Final Analysis:
- The Blazers are the quintessential “young guns” in the NBA. They have intensity, personality, and a general will to win. Nate McMillan is proving that he is one of the great basketball coaches of this era. He is molding the massive amounts of potential that the Blazers have shown into a package that can compete for NBA Titles for many years to come. While it may be difficult to keep all of these players in Portland over time, the chances of winning a Championship should keep the nucleus of this team intact. Watch closely as you cap Blazers games this year because you are most likely going to see a lot of the same players and schemes as the next few years pass.
Utah Jazz (#20 & #50 Overall)
Team Strengths:
- Deron Williams and Chris Paul will have quite the competition over the next several years to see just who is the most dominant point guard in the Western Conference, and Williams is definitely showing that he will not go down without a fight. His 10.7 apg. this season were the main factor in Utah leading the entire league in assists per game. While the Jazz will have a lot of work to do in the next couple of offseasons in terms of re-signing their own players, they will not have to worry about Williams going anywhere. He is a great centerpiece for the team to build around.
- While Andrei Kirilenko’s passiveness to the game of basketball continues to keep analysts scratching their hands, he showed that he can be equally effective coming off the bench as he could as a starter. Kirilenko, even with reduced minutes, still played phenomenal defense averaging over one block and one steal per game.
- Ronnie Brewer must be given a new contract before he becomes an unrestricted free agent next summer. While he is not capable of shooting 35% or above from beyond the arc, his .508 FG% is a testament to Brewer’s capability to work within the system that he is given. He also led this team with 1.7 steals per game, which should solidify just how valuable he has become to Utah’s success.
Team Weaknesses:
- There is little hope for the Jazz to re-sign Carlos Boozer this summer. As mentioned in a previous article, Boozer is already listing his two favorites as being the Nets and the Pistons. Losing Boozer would mean the Jazz lose their top rebounder and third-highest scorer. While I’m sure Jerry Sloan won’t mind having a more durable replacement on the floor, one cannot argue that Boozer’s absence will affect this team in a big way.
- To go along with the previous point, the sheer amount of roster turnover that could take place over the next two years is just astounding. Boozer, Millsap, Korver, Okur, Brewer, and Harpring are just a few of the names of Jazz players whose contracts will be coming to an end over the next two years. Okur and Korver have already said that they are looking for higher-salaried contracts, and Boozer is definitely not giving off the vibe that he will be returning to Utah next season.
Our Pick(s):
- #20: Tyler Hansbrough – PF, North Carolina. Can this pick make any more sense? First of all, Hansbrough brings the blue-collar mentality that the Jazz have prided themselves on for many seasons. Second, Hansbrough provides a good replacement for Boozer at the PF spot in the lineup. Third, he is a proven winner, who is willing to work with guys like Deron Williams to do whatever it takes to win games. He doesn’t wow you with any semblance of explosiveness, nor does he have the range to knock down even the most modest mid-range jumper consistently. But, he fits the Jazz perfectly and is a player Utah fans can rally behind.
- #50: Dionte Christmas – SG, Temple. Christmas can play either the SG or SF positions with the same level of effectiveness, though he is undersized at 6’5” for the SF in the NBA. What he does provide for the Jazz is a backup plan in case Ronnie Brewer and Kyle Korver do not re-sign with the team. Christmas is limited in what he can offer an NBA team beyond slightly-above-average perimeter shooting, but Jerry Sloan has done more with less before.
Final Analysis:
- The Jazz had a typical Utah Jazz type of season. Win enough games to make it into the Playoffs and then underachieve until you are eventually eliminated. It is a formula that has existed with this franchise since Stockton and Malone first began creating each other’s careers. Amateur and professional handicappers, alike, should put special emphasis on watching what kinds of players the Jazz are bringing in. It wouldn’t surprise me if they start to go a little more up-tempo, since this is where Williams really shines as a PG. Vegas might be hesitant to put high numbers on Utah games, which could translate nicely into some winning nights for educated bettors.
Minnesota Timberwolves (#6, #18, #28, #45, & #47 Overall)
Team Strengths:
- Kevin McHale’s association with the Minnesota Timberwolves organization appears to be over. Throughout his 17 years with the T’Wolves organization, McHale took this franchise from the bottom to the top and back to the bottom again. While I do not blame McHale 100% for all of the shortcomings of Timberwolves ownership, it is difficult to rationalize some of the decisions that were made during McHale’s tenure.
- Though plagued by injuries his first three years in the league, Randy Foye is turning out to be a solid draft pick for the Wolves. He is consistently getting better as he matures and finds his niche amongst NBA players. Foye is a restricted free agent next summer, and while he won’t be one of the highest paid free agents of that particular offseason, he should command the type of money that will make Minnesota have a tough decision to make.
- This could be the Draft that turns things around in Minnesota. With five picks total, Minnesota can start this offseason with a bang by drafting high-quality exciting players that can contribute right away.
Team Weaknesses:
- Minnesota finished dead-last in the NBA in total FG%. Fans of the Timberwolves should thank their lucky stars that they have Al Jefferson on their roster, or it would have been an even longer season last year. Even with Jefferson’s near-50% FG%, Minnesota still found themselves in this category’s cellar. Keep in mind that Jefferson is still only 24 years old, so his best years are still ahead of him. But, how long will he stand for mediocrity with the Timberwolves?
- The Timberwolves were not good at all defensively. I will be the first to say that I didn’t think Kevin Love would be able to make an impact during his rookie season. Love was the team’s 2nd-leading rebounder behind Jefferson as well as finishing 2nd behind Jefferson in blocks per game. Beyond these two, though, there was almost no defensive effort turned in by the rest of the T’Wolves roster, which will obviously need to change quickly.
Our Pick(s):
- #6: Stephen Curry – PG/SG, Davison. I know that I have already listed Curry a couple of times in this list with a couple of different teams. The difference with Minnesota is that the benefit is actually two-fold for them: 1) Curry will put butts in the seats, and 2) Curry can step in and contribute right away. There has been major talk that Minnesota might be trading up to get Ricky Rubio, but their best bet would be to save their picks, stay where they are, and get a player that domestic fans are better able to identify.
- #18: Ty Lawson – PG, North Carolina. Can you imagine if Minnesota took Curry and Lawson with their first and second picks? While it might seem like you are drafting two point guards by going this route, make no mistake that Curry is more suited to play SG at the next level. Lawson might be the quickest open floor player that the Draft has seen in the past 15 years. Lawson and Curry together would automatically guarantee that Minnesota plays at least 3 or 4 times on national TV next season.
- #28: DaJuan Summers – SF, Georgetown. 6’8” and 241 lbs. at the SF position makes Summers an intriguing pick worth taking a risk on at #28. He might already be taken by this point, but some in the NBA are not enamored with Summers lack of toughness, both physical and mental, as well as his inability to handle the ball efficiently, which has become a prerequisite for successful SF play in the NBA.
- #45: Paul Harris – SG, Syracuse. Another guard for the T’Wolves? When you have the tandem of Love and Jefferson in the frontcourt, you can address your backcourt deficiencies without too much worry. Harris may never be more than a sixth-man in the NBA, but his overall length at only 6’4” and his defensive prowess would be two attributes that would translate into a better Minnesota team.
- #47: Robert Dozier – PF, Memphis. Dozier stands 6’10” and while he played mostly SF in college, he projects to PF in the NBA because of his height, his length, and his inability to handle the ball. He really made vast improvements in his shooting abilities under John Calipari at Memphis, and the T’Wolves could afford to give him the time to add much needed weight to his 200 lb. frame.
Final Analysis:
- The Timberwolves could either be the kings of the 2009 NBA Draft, or they could be the court jesters just as easily. Either way, it should be exciting to watch how GM David Kahn performs in his first Draft. The T’Wolves are at a point in their franchise’s history where they need to find ways to get people interested in their basketball team again. After Garnett was traded to the Celtics, the proverbial “balloon” exploded in Minnesota, and the franchise has suffered ever since. Minnesota, at this point, reminds me a lot of where the Trailblazers were just a couple of years ago and look how a couple of solid Drafts have improved that organization.
Oklahoma City Thunder (#3 & #25 Overall)
Team Strengths:
- Kevin Durant is obviously the best, and possibly only, strength that the Thunder can boast right now. His 25 points and 6.5 rebounds per game were one of the lone bright spots in an abysmal season for the Thunder in their first season in Oklahoma City. While Durant remains prone to excessive turnovers from time to time, there is no denying that he is a difference-maker on the court.
- Jeff Green really improved his game in his second year in the league. Green provides a great 2nd-option to Kevin Durant, and he plays solid defense, which was a question mark for him coming out of college. While he could’ve Steve Francis-ed his way through his first couple of years with Oklahoma City, Green has accepted his position in the league and tried to make the best of it.
Team Weaknesses:
- Too many different lineups during this past season really hurt any chance the Thunder had at establishing any kind of team chemistry. In addition to the varying lineups, the Thunder had a midseason “changing of the guard” when they fired P.J. Carlesimo and hired Scott Brooks. There was no cohesion on the court and that translated into a last-place finish in the Northwest Division.
- It really pains me to look at the Thunder’s roster from last season. Beyond Durant and Green, the Thunder really have no players that make a person think that this franchise will be moving forward in the foreseeable future. Russell Westbrook was drafted too high at #4 in last year’s Draft. Thabo Sefolosha should never have been traded for a 1st-round Draft pick. I’m not sure who is more overrated between Nenad Kristic and Shaun Livingston, but I do know that these two players are not the right fit for the Thunder. A complete overhaul of the roster would not be a bad thing right now in Oklahoma City.
Our Pick(s):
- #3: Ricky Rubio – PG, Spain. It’s hard to know what Memphis is really thinking at #2 right now. Do they go with Thabeet to set themselves up in the paint for the next 8-10 years, or do they go for a SG in Harden or Rubio that would provide instant scoring punch to go alongside O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay. My gut tells me that Thabeet will be the pick at #2, which means that both Rubio and Harden will be available for Oklahoma City. Rubio appears to be the better pick for the Thunder due to the professional competition that he has faced already in Europe as well as Rubio’s dazzling display of his true PG abilities.
- #25: Sam Young – SF, Pittsburgh. Young was a tweener in college, playing both of the forward positions. His 6’6” height translates into a SF spot in the NBA. If they were to take Young with this pick, it would be purely for his defensive skill set and what he offers the team on that end of the floor. He can easily guard the best player on the floor at anytime thanks to his length and tireless work ethic. I think Young knows what NBA teams are looking to get out of him, and he is trying to accentuate those attributes while disguising some of his shortcomings (mostly related to the offensive side of the court).
Final Analysis:
- The Thunder is another team, similar to the T’Wolves, who would benefit from a high-profile selection like Rubio. Basketball fans all over the United States are waiting to see this highly regarded foreign sensation. In the meantime, Durant and Green could take advantage of this new exposure and establish themselves as pre-eminent players in the Western Conference. I don’t think Oklahoma City is going to get much credit from Vegas, but they should be able to be more competitive this season and win some games they shouldn’t when favorable matchups present themselves.
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