NBA Draft Preview: What It Means to Your Bottom Line (5 of 6)

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This is part 5 of a 6-part series delving into individual team needs as we near the 2009 NBA Draft, which takes place Thursday, June 25th at 7pm.

Each commentary in this 6-article series will focus on one specific division’s group of teams and what areas they need to address with their draft picks this year by looking at their team strengths and team weaknesses. We also take into account possible free agent acquisitions and departures in determining where exactly a team needs the most help.

What sets this preview apart from any other is that we analyze what each team’s potential draft strategy would mean to sports bettors everywhere preparing for the 2009-2010 NBA season.

We continue on in the Western Conference with the Pacific Division. The number(s) in parentheses represent the picks that particular team will have in this year’s draft.

Follow the entire 6-part series here…2009 NBA Draft Preview and stick with ATS for all the latest NBA lines.

Los Angeles Lakers (#29, #42, & #57 Overall)

Team Strengths:

- During their Championship run this past season, the Lakers ended up finishing 3rd in the NBA in total points scored while also finishing 4th in overall FG% and 2nd in assists per game. Part of the reason for the high shooting percentage was Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum shooting a very well from the floor at 56% each. The Lakers also got great PG play out of Derek Fisher, who finished the season with an astounding 3.63-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.

- Another reason underlying the Lakers’ run to success this year had to do with their ability to play stellar defense on a consistent basis. Two statistics that pop out immediately in this category: 1st in total rebounding and 2nd in steals. A great deal of the Lakers’ rebounding acumen can be attributed to Pau Gasol. Gasol really showed just how talented he can be when there are above-average players surrounding him, and he does not have to be the focal point of opposing defenses.

Team Weaknesses:

- Trevor Ariza and Lamar Odom both become unrestricted free agents after the Draft is over. At this point, it looks like Odom is torn between having the chance to win more Championships in L.A., or taking more money to be more of a centerpiece on an underachieving team. In the end, though, I think that it is much more likely that Odom remains in L.A. than Ariza. Ariza’s value in this league has never been higher thanks to an outstanding NBA Playoff performance. He should get starter’s money from some team and that will probably be too enticing to rationalize his return to the Lakers.

- The Lakers must begin to figure out what their succession plan is for Derek Fisher at the PG position. If the Lakers are planning on Farmar, he must get more minutes on the floor than he did this season (18 mpg.). I don’t think that Farmar is the answer for the Lakers next starting PG. He is too erratic, and I believe the Lakers could find themselves a better option either through the Draft or free agency.

Our pick(s):

- #29: Darren Collison – PG, UCLA. To continue with the previous discussion about Fisher’s replacement, Collison provides a local talent who was very successful during his career at UCLA. What he can offer the Lakers over Farmar is the fact that he makes better decisions on the floor, he produces at a very high level, and he plays very sound defense. While Collison’s upside is not the greatest, he would provide the Lakers with a consistent, efficient option when Fisher needs a rest.

- #42: Sergei Gladyr – SG, Ukraine. The Lakers can afford to take some European talent who might not be ready to produce at an NBA level right now, but, given time, should be able to contribute effectively two or three years down the road. Gladyr is not your typical European player when you speak of his athleticism. Most Europeans have the stigma of being slow-footed and not very agile attached to them from the beginning. However, Gladyr uses his tremendous athletic ability to score points that other players could not score. L.A. would be wise to capture his rights now and keep him in Europe for awhile.

- #59: Henk Norel – PF, Netherlands. See the above write-up for an explanation as to why Norel provides great value to the Lakers at the very end of this Draft. Norel is another player who could benefit greatly from a couple more seasons of the European professional leagues. His 6’11” frame could use about 20 to 25 more pounds of mass, which he could continue to work on overseas. Another player who the Lakers can afford to wait on.

Final Analysis:

- As the defending NBA Champions, the Lakers will obviously be targeted by all of the other teams in the league come next season. It is important for cappers everywhere to remember how much the Celtics struggled during the 2nd-half of this past season once they began to wear down from all of their hard fought games. While the Lakers might be strong the 1st-half of the season, savvy bettors should look to capitalize on juicy numbers once the latter half of the season rolls around.

Phoenix Suns (#14, #48, & #57 Overall)

Team Strengths:

- At 109.4 points per game last season, the Suns led the entire NBA in scoring. Another statistic to prove just how capable the Suns were on the offensive end of the floor: Phoenix led the league in FG% at 50.4%.

- Shaquille O’Neal showed that he has no problem finding his niche in an uptempo-style offense. O’Neal averaged his highest points per game and minutes per game since the 2005-06 season with the Miami Heat. The amount of back and forth action obviously got Shaq into better physical condition, which translated into higher production than we have seen from Shaq the past couple of seasons.

Team Weaknesses:

- Phoenix allowed the 4th highest amount of points scored in the NBA during last season. While the “run-n-gun” argument for lack of defense is fine to a point, head coach Terry Porter was brought in by the Suns’ front office to bring in a more defensive-minded approach to the team. The Suns obviously struggled during the early part of the season when Porter was trying to slow down everything that Phoenix did. Once they brought in Alvin Gentry, the Suns were able to recognize a higher level of success. Still, Phoenix needs to find better full-court defenders, so they don’t have to rely on high numbers of shot attempts to win them games.

- Steve Nash, Amare Stoudemire, and Shaquille O’Neal will all be free agents after the 2009-10 season. While Nash will more than likely return, I would be surprised if Stoudemire did not look extremely hard at other options available to him. The fact that Phoenix has been throwing his name out as potential trade bait is an indicator that Stoudemire’s days in Phoenix may be numbered.

Our Pick(s):

- #14: B.J. Mullens – C, Ohio St. There is not one center in this entire Draft better than B.J. Mullens, except for Hasheem Thabeet. Unfortunately for Mullens, the gap between these two players is quite large, which will keep Mullens out of the top-10 picks. However, a team like Phoenix could greatly benefit from having a pure center like Mullens on their roster. At only 20 years old and having only played one year of collegiate basketball, Mullens already has an NBA body that contains a surprisingly soft touch around the basket. One of Mullens’ most intriguing aspects is his ability to get up and down the floor with ease, which fits perfectly into Phoenix’s style of basketball. With the futures of Stoudemire and O’Neal highly in doubt, Mullens seems to be a good choice for Phoenix at #14.

- #48: Tyrese Rice – PG, Boston College. Some mock drafts floating around do not have Rice even being drafted, which absolutely shocks me given his career for the Golden Eagles. Rice’s ability to score from the PG position alone should shoot him up draft boards everywhere. While Rice will not be able to get to the basket as easily as he did in college, he would provide some great perimeter shooting for Phoenix.

- #57: Emir Preldzic – SF, Slovenia. With Grant Hill entering free agency in a couple of weeks, the Suns might be looking to find his replacement, even if he does re-sign for a short-term deal with the Suns. Preldzic provides great height and weight for the position at 6’9” and 220 lbs. He has handled the ball efficiently and often during his professional career in Europe, which should make him appealing to some GMs in the NBA. Preldzic joins a long list of European players in this year’s Draft pool that will probably hear their names called but will not see an NBA game for at least two years.

Final Analysis:

- With Gentry at the helm for the 2nd-half of Phoenix’s season, every player on the team seemed more comfortable with the flow of the game. No longer were they forced to run half-court sets that didn’t maximize their athletic prowess. Watch closely as the Suns move through this upcoming season and into the 2010-11 season, as this team could be taking on a whole new identity very quickly if Nash and Stoudemire do not return.

Golden State Warriors (#7 Overall)

Team Strengths:

- Trailing only the Phoenix Suns, the Golden State Warriors were 2nd in the league in scoring at 108.6 points per game. What this high level of scoring does is that it allows them to take a PG in this year’s Draft who doesn’t have to be an above-average scorer.

- Andris Biedrins is really turning into a special player at the C position. His points, rebounds, and assists have improved every year during his 5-year career. One other positive aspect of Biedrins is that he is only 23 years old and has the best years of his career ahead of him.

Team Weaknesses:

- There is not one player on the entire Golden State roster that could be considered a “true” PG. Every guard that the Warriors have is either a “tweener” or pure SG. The team has no true floor general, and they need one desperately to take the next step.

- The Warriors had the worst defense in the league in terms of points allowed. Besides Biedrins and Stephen Jackson, the Warriors have no defenders that could be considered “better than average.”

Our Pick(s):

- #7: Jonny Flynn – PG, Syracuse. While not being an outside scoring threat that is going to have to be gameplanned for by opposing teams, Flynn is exactly the type of player that the Warriors need as they move forward. Flynn is a player who can play 43-46 minutes per game without seeing any drop off in production. He can create his own shot quite well, which also makes him an attractive pick for many teams selecting in the top-10. One special note: Keep an eye out for a draft-day trade possibly involving Monta Ellis or Keleena Azubuike. No matter what he says to the press, Ellis wants to be in a better situation than he currently is in with the Warriors.

Final Analysis:

- While I have a great deal of respect for Don Nelson and his ability to coach teams with a great deal of young talent and get the most out of them, he just doesn’t seem to have the right personnel to achieve success right now with the Warriors. A pick like Jonny Flynn of Syracuse would go a long way towards putting them back in contention for a Playoff spot. Until then, Golden State gives bettors an opportunity to capitalize on their high offensive output and that is about it.

Los Angeles Clippers (#1 Overall)

Team Strengths:

- There is no doubt that the Clippers have some outstanding big men that can play well in the painted area. However, Chris Kaman has been rumored to be in trade talks with a few teams around the league, while DeAndre Jordan still is not ready to be an everyday NBA player. Still, the combination of Marcus Camby, Zach Randolph, and Chris Kaman is a lethal combination on the inside.

- Eric Gordon and Al Thornton were two young men that really surprised the Clippers with their advanced level of production so early in their careers. The production of Gordon really helped to mask the awful signing of Baron Davis in the offseason.

Team Weaknesses:

- As mentioned previously, Baron Davis’ signing, while great for fans of the Clippers due to Davis’ ties to the Los Angeles area, was a catastrophe for the Clippers organization. Davis averaged his lowest point per game average since his 2nd year in the league while shooting just 37% from the floor. Davis must produce this coming season or the Clippers have to think about getting rid of his contract so they can continue to build a winning team.

- Los Angeles was riddled with injuries during this past season. Not only was Davis out for 17 games, but Randolph, Thornton, Camby, Kaman, and Mike Taylor all missed a good amount of time last season due to injury. The above names are so important to the success level of the Clippers that another similar type of injury-plagued season would significantly set the Clippers franchise back.

Our Pick(s):

- #1: Blake Griffin – PF, Oklahoma. Even with all of the fire power that the Clippers currently have up front, Griffin MUST be taken with the #1 pick in the Draft simply because he has a phenomenal amount of talent, his potential is through the roof, and he has two complete seasons of collegiate basketball on his resume. Griffin is one of the only, if not THE only, “can’t miss” prospects in the entire Draft. He provides a great insurance policy should Kaman or Camby find new homes (which is extremely possible due to the Clippers’ current financial situation) during this upcoming offseason.

Final Analysis:

- Blake Griffin will not be enough to turn the Clippers franchise around, but his presence on the court combined with two young stars in the making (Gordon and Thornton) should allow the Clippers to be more successful than they were this past season. Los Angeles will win some games against more talented teams this season, but they will also lose games against teams with less talent. Be very careful when handicapping Clippers’ games, as they could be very inconsistent on a game-to-game basis this upcoming season.

Sacramento Kings (#4, #23, & #31 Overall)

Team Strengths:

- While I don’t believe that Kevin Martin is a guy that Sacramento can build their roster around, he still produces at a very high level. Only playing in 51 games last season, Martin raised his production to 24.6 ppg. and tried to prove that he could pass as well as shoot the ball. If Sacramento can find a solid PG to accompany Martin in the backcourt, more wins are a definite possibility for this franchise.

- Paul Westphal being brought in to coach the Kings was a great offseason move by the front office. Westphal brings with him a great deal of coaching experience, which includes a 4-year stint as the Phoenix Suns’ head coach and a 3-year stint as the Sonics head coach. Westphal was also a player in the NBA for many seasons, so his experience should go a long way in helping guys like Kevin Martin become better all-around players.

Team Weaknesses:

- They have a tremendous amount of money tied up in the contracts of 3 players. Kevin Martin, Francisco Garcia, and Donte Greene have combined contracts that cost the Kings over $60 million. For a player that only starts half of the games he plays in (Garcia) and a rookie that shot 32.6% from the floor while only averaging 3.8 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 13.2 minutes per game (Greene), this is an exorbitant amount of money that could be spent much better. While the Kings might be making their best efforts to try to prove that they are concerned with the future of this franchise, their spending habits tell another story.

- It is hard for me to believe that a player like Andres Nocioni belongs on this roster. The fact that he is under contract for 3 more years is even more disconcerting. While I can appreciate the defensive intensity that Nocioni brings to a Sacramento team that is lacking significantly in the defense category, his personality just does not seem to mesh well with players.

Our Pick(s):

- #4: Tyreke Evans – PG/SG, Memphis. If Rubio is available by the time the Kings draft at #4, they should select Rubio. However, it is my own personal belief that Rubio will go either #2 or #3 in the Draft. While Tyreke Evans might be a stretch at #4, he would provide the Kings with an excellent scoring option to play alongside Martin in the backcourt. While he is not a PG in the purest sense, Evans’ ball handling and quickness should make him a serviceable NBA PG who can light up scoreboards everywhere.

- #23: Omri Casspi – SF, Israel. Casspi might remind many of a player already in uniform for Sacramento (Garcia), Casspi provides great size and work ethic, which would be a great attribute to add to the Sacramento roster. Casspi’s ability to shoot the ball from multiple points on the floor is a big question mark, which is why Casspi is projected as a late-1st rounder. However, Casspi would give the Kings some great minutes off the bench and is ready to play in the NBA right now.

- #31: Rodrigue Beaubois – PG, Guadeloupe. At 6’2”, Beaubois has advanced defensive skills that normally do not accompany many of the European professionals that are drafted. Getting to the basket and finishing is also another one of Beaubois’ strong points, which is another attribute that allows Beaubois to be taken a little higher than he probably should be. His shooting inaccuracies and turnover-heavy style of play need to be worked on, but he does provide a great deal of upside for a team looking for quick, lengthy guards.

Final Analysis:

- On the surface, it might appear as though the Kings have good young talent who, given time, will mature into productive NBA players. Aside from Martin, however, there is not one other player on Sacramento’s roster that impresses me. Spencer Hawes showed glimpses, but he is far too inconsistent for this point in his career to be taken seriously in any discussion of good, young big men. The Kings won’t be much better next year regardless of who they take with their two first-round picks.

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