NFL Week 12: Five Things to Watch

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Thanksgiving weekend marks the beginning of the stretch run in the NFL. For teams that are still in playoff contention that means that every game becomes a one week season where a win or a loss can mean the difference between a first round bye or having to play a first round game, winning your division or getting in as a wildcard, or even making the playoffs at all. The intensity level of the games goes up as this is when the cream really does ride to the top. Here are five things to watch for that may provide an edge when making your picks.

1) The Underdogs – Again

Three weeks ago in 13 games, 10 teams getting points covered the spread. Six of those teams actually won their game outright. Two weeks ago in 15 games, 9 teams getting points covered the spread and once again six teams won outright. Last week with a full sixteen game schedule, 10 teams getting points covered the spread with five teams winning outright. If I have done my math correctly, this means that in the last 44 games, the underdog has covered 29 times or 66%.

The betting perspective: Once again I would caution that you evaluate each game on its own merits, but the points are flying around again this week. Seven games have a nine point or more spread with three games at 14 points.

2) AFC Playoff Picture

Heading into this week action 10-0 Indianapolis has a four game lead in the AFC South and a firm grip on the number one seed overall. New England has a two game lead in the AFC East and is tied for the second best record at 7-3. Cincinnati is 7-3 and has a one game lead in the AFC North, but the tie breaker over both Pittsburgh and Baltimore. San Diego is also 7-3 and has a one game lead in the AFC West. Three teams; Pittsburgh, Denver, and Jacksonville lead the wildcard chase at 6-4 and three more teams; Miami, Houston, and Baltimore are still in the hunt at 5-5.

The betting perspective: I always lean towards good teams in the most desperate situation to keep their playoff hopes alive. This week that would be Baltimore, Houston, and Miami.

3) NFC Playoff Picture

New Orleans at 10-0 has a five game lead in the NFC South and is currently the number one seed in the conference. Minnesota is 9-1 and has a three game lead and the tie breaker over 6-4 Green Bay in the NFC North. 7-3 Arizona has a three game lead in the NFC West. In the NFC East, 7-3 Dallas has a one game lead over 6-4 Philadelphia and New York. The Packers, Eagles, and the Giants have the inside track for the two wildcard spots and Atlanta at 5-5 is still in the picture. Carolina, Chicago, and San Francisco are currently on the outside looking in at 4-6.

The betting perspective: Once again I would lean toward the better teams that are in most need of a win. This week that would be Atlanta, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and New York.

4) Banged up Quarterbacks

Last week a few high profile quarterbacks sustained injuries that might linger into this week’s games. Arizona’s Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger were knocked out of their games with a head injury. Dallas QB Tony Romo took a knee to the back which only temporarily sidelined him from the action. At the end of his game, Detroit’s Matthew Stafford dislocated his non throwing shoulder, but came back in the game on the last play to throw the game winning touchdown.

The betting perspective: Since head injuries can be tricky, keep an eye on Warner and Roethlisberger’s situation as their absence in the lineup would have a major impact on the outcome of their games.

5) New England @ New Orleans

This is by far the biggest game of week 12 as New Orleans put their perfect 10-0 record on the line to host New England, who is still one of the most dangerous teams in the league. The Saints have yet to be really tested as they have only beaten two teams with a winning record so this game will easily be their biggest challenge of the season. The Patriots are used to playing in big games and seem to relish the chance to be in the spotlight. Much was made about the controversial call that may have cost them the game against the Colts, but they clearly out played Indianapolis and should have won the game. This time they will get the chance to prove they are one of the best against another quality opponent.

The betting perspective: New England needs this win far more than the Saints do and are still trying to get past the memory of the loss to the Colts.

NFL Vegas Odds

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