Preakness Odds: 2009 In-Depth Preview and Top Picks

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The second leg of the Triple Crown will be run this Saturday, May 16th. It’’s the Preakness Stakes, run at Pimlico Race Course, in Baltimore, Maryland.

ATS Consultants has nailed the last 3 Preakness exactas and will release this year’s winner. Click here to get the 2009 Preakness winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta.

I can tell you what you might see, or at least what you should look out for.

Let’’s start with the easy stuff.

First of all, you’ll probably see lots of teenagers and early twenty-somethings, trying to sneak beer into the infield … huh? Yeah, this is the first year that Pimlico has banned the BYOB policy. Hey, maybe that’s not so terrible news. I mean, I don’t think anyone wants to see another appearance from Lee Chang Farrell … do we?

Obviously, you’ll probably see Governor Martin O’Malley, Mayor Sheila Dixon, Oriole Great Cal Ripken, and all the other “big names from the Baltimore area.

There will probably even be a “”Big G”” sighting. Sure you know, ‘big boy’ will be the one picking up tickets off the ground and scanning them through the voucher machines looking for a cashier. You’’ll probably see Fuzzy cashing in’ the “Line 1040” winners for a small percentage – FYI, don’t forget to guard your popcorn, pretzels, and chips when “Fuzzy” comes around.

You might even see “too many books” behind a stack of Daily Racing Forms and Sheets – you might even get a wordy explanation on how this horse or that horse’s Beyer figure is skewed by the track bias – and you could even see “Mushy Mush” (of Hulu acclaim), placing moderate wagers on Pick 3s and Pick 4s – you’ll probably even get a call from him later saying that he and Steve got nosed out of $2500.

But these are things we expect. I am more excited to see something that we might not expect, but all hope for, and that’’s racing history!

Every year, a couple minutes after the Kentucky Derby is run on the first Saturday in May, we start hearing talk about whether we could witness another Triple Crown winner. It’’s been awhile, Affirmed in 1978, so 31 years ago.

It is truly an amazing feat, obviously, considering only eleven horses have ever completed the sweep of all three legs, the first being Sir Barton in 1919.

This year, 50-1 longshot Mine that Bird becomes the next candidate to make history.

But has he made history already?

Thirteen horses are entered to come to post at Old Hilltop, on Saturday, May 16th, at 6:15pm EST. One of the top contenders and favorite is Rachel Alexandra, the winner of the Kentucky Oaks, a race run a day before the Kentucky Derby. The Oaks is equivalent in status to the Derby, but for fillies. And Rachel Alexandra won that race by 20-plus lengths. This filly is truly a monster, and will likely go off as the Preakness favorite, that’s right, favorite over the boys. The boys including this year’s Derby winner, Mine that Bird. Okay, maybe that’s not so much of a big deal, but that’s not the whole story. Calvin Borel, who amazed us with his tactical ‘up the rail’ closing move with Mine that Bird, is the normal rider of … you guest it … Rachel Alexandra. Calvin Borel will be riding Rachel in the Preakness on Saturday – not Mine that Bird. (Mike Smith picked up that mount)

So, for the first time we have a jockey de-mount (not even sure if that’s a word) from the Derby winner, to ride another contender in the Preakness. That’s crazy right? Well, if you have seen this filly run, you would know that Calvin Borel ain’t crazy, but the story or situation is crazy.

Now we not only could see Mine that Bird go 2 for 2 in pursuit of the Triple Crown, but now we could see a Triple Crown of another sort in jockey, Calvin Borel. In fact, I deem the latter feat, as more amazing, considering we have never seen it happen before … ever!

Borel would be the first jockey ever to sweep all the Triple Crown races in a given year, but on multiple mounts. Whew … who’d of thunk (I think this is another made up word)?

Let’s breakdown the Preakness contenders for you:

PP 1. Big Drama comes the Grade 2 Swale Stakes, a race in which he won, but was DQ’d to second for bumping in the stretch. A quick colt out of Montbrook (Maryland race fans should know his sire well), Big “Johnny Chase” should show some good early foot. Let’s see how far Velazquez can take him.
Morning Odds: 10-1

PP 2. Mine that Bird comes into the Preakness Stakes, as the Derby winner, shooting a win in the second jewel of the Triple Crown. Let’s face it, he smoked the Derby field. But can we expect a repeat performance? That’s a tough call. Seriously, throw out his last race, just ignore it totally, Mine that Bird might be the longest shot on the board. Now to reality, he’s the winner of the Derby. And he looked great doing it. He loses Calvin Bo-Rail, and gets Mike Smith. This race is totally different than the Derby, and my experience with the Pimlico course tells me that you can’t win the Preakness with a last to first move. But if Mine that Bird fires again, you can say “I told you so.”
Morning Odds: 9/2

PP 3. Musket Man comes off a third place effort in the Derby, beaten 6 ¾ lengths. Truthfully, he might have been second best, and should have filed a claim against Pioneerof the Nile for bearing out in the stretch. The shorter distance of the Preakness is a bonus for Musket Man, and it appears he can run if it’s wet or dry. Musket Man has tactical speed which always fairs well at Old Hilltop. Not sure if he is good enough to win it, but you should feel no shame in playing him in your exotics.
Morning Odds: 10-1

PP 4. Luv Gov comes to the Preakness off his maiden win on the under of the Derby. Luv Gov did run 2nd behind Derby runner, Summer Bird earlier this year. I know, I know … so what right? Let’s face it, there isn’t much to like about this homebred colt out of Ten Most Wanted. But it is Hall of Famer D Wayne Lukas who saddles him up, so he must have something going for him. Read between the lines … see anything? Eh … me either.
Morning Odds: 10-1

PP 5. Friesan Fire comes into the Preakness as the beaten Derby favorite. A race in which he faltered badly and was beaten 42 ¼ lengths. I have always questioned Friesan Fire’s class, remember, he has only been in one Grade 1 (the Derby), and he didn’t fair well. There was a ton of money thrown on him in Louisville, and it might happen again in Baltimore. I won’t be one of those people, but I can’t blame people for trying to get their money back from the Derby massacre.
Morning Odds: 10-1

PP 6. Terrain comes to the Preakness off a 4th place finish in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes. Terrain is a one run closer, he needs pace to run at, and he needs a lot of help. Here’s the thing, he hasn’t won a race since September of last year, and the competition isn’t getting any easier. If you think the pace is gonna be hot, go for it, you might be rewarded handsomely.
Morning Odds: 30-1

PP 7. Papa Clem comes off a fourth place in the Derby beaten by 7 lengths, a race in which, he might have been the best. He sat closer to the pace than he wanted, and he hung tough in the stretch even though Pioneerof the Nile was bearing out on him. Bejarano is back in board, and I got to tell you, he looks like the best of the boys … notice I said boys. I can’t see not using him in the exotics.
Morning Odds: 8-1

PP 8. General Quarters comes into the Preakness off a disappointing 10th in the Derby, beaten 17 ¼ lengths. Owner/trainer Tom McCarthy gives him another shot in the Preakness, hoping that the off track severely hampered his horse’s effectiveness. Not matter what happens from here on out, General Quarters is certainly a success story, remember GQ was claimed last May for $20K, and has since earned in excess of $600K. Not a bad investment. GQ spanked the Grade 1 Blue Grass field just prior to the Derby, he’ll need to find that old form to have a shot in here.
Morning Odds: 20-1

PP 9. Pioneerof the Nile comes into the Preakness as the Derby runner up beaten 6 ¾ lengths … even though he drifted out badly in the stretch – which might have saved second place for him. Pioneerof the Nile is the true definition of a “hard knocker” … he is there every race, and you can always count on a call. My main concern is that this is Pioneer’s fourth race in the two months, let’s see if he has anything left in the tank.
Morning Odds: 5-1

PP 10. Flying Private was dead last in the Derby … beaten some 43 lengths. Even still, Lukas decides to bring him back for the second leg of the Triple Crown. Word has it, he looked great in his post Derby workout on May 11th. He certainly will be long odds, and he probably is better than his Derby effort, but I don’t know if he is good enough to beat these. But I will guarantee one thing, he won’t run last in the Preakness.
Morning Odds: 50-1

PP 11. Take the Points comes to Pimlico a fresh horse, he ran a nice race in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and appears primed for a huge effort. Prado gets back aboard, and note Edgar has guided him to two victories both times he rode Take the Points. And Edgar is no stranger to the Pimlico winners’ circle. You have to respect Take the Points here, if you don’t, you’ll regret it.
Morning Odds: 30-1

PP 12. Tone It Down comes into the Preakness off a third place finish in the Federico Tesio Stakes, right here at Pimlico. The lone local entry, Tone It Down gets the most decorated jockey ever to ride in Maryland, in Kent Desormeaux. The “Cajun Kid” has led many to the winners’ circle here at Pimlico, but this is a tall task, even for Kent. Tone It Down has some early foot, and Desormeaux will have him within striking range … but I don’t think Tone It Down can run with this class of horses.
Morning Odds: 50-1

PP 13. Rachel Alexandra comes into the Preakness on a five race win streak, a breath taking display of dominance in the Kentucky Oaks – she won by 20 ¼ lengths. Rachel will be without question the favorite here. No often do you get a filly favorite against the boys in such a huge race, but Rachel Alexandra is an exception to all rules. The outside post draw is not alarming at all, in fact should help her relax. Against top fillies Rachel goes off around 30 cents on the dollar … against these Preakness foes, she’ll be over even money, which might be an actually bargain.
Morning Odds: 9-5

If you think the filly is beatable in the Preakness (which she is), you can plan on making a big score. And, ATS Consultants plans on it….again. In fact, ATS has nailed the last 3 Preakness exactas and will release this year’’s winner.

Click here for updated Preakness odds

Click here to purchase the 2009 Preakness winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta

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